AASHTO概率模型在船桥碰撞风险评估中的应用

Application of AASHTO probabilistic model to risk assessment of ship-bridge collision

近年来随着航道等级的提升,设计通航船舶尺度增大,要求的通航净空尺度增加,桥区通航水域条件发生显著变化。桥梁存在船撞风险,需对船撞桥梁风险实施评估、为实施防撞设施工程提供依据。国内外因船舶撞击而导致桥梁垮塌或严重破坏的事故逐渐增多,平均每年就有一座大型桥梁因为船舶撞击而遭受严重破坏甚至倒塌。北江航道乌石至三水河口航段经整治由Ⅳ级提升为Ⅲ级后,桥梁存在船撞风险。以船撞桥概率模型(AASHTO)为研究方法,分析了整治河段清远北江二桥参数对船撞桥概率的影响,计算了船舶撞击桥梁各涉水桥墩的年撞击概率,确定了存在较大船撞风险的桥梁与涉水桥墩,建立了船撞桥损伤概率模型,分析桥梁各部位抗撞能力、桥梁各部位船舶撞击力及各部位的年撞击频率,得出通航孔桥墩的年撞击倒塌频率。

In recent years, with the improvement of the waterway grade, the scale of the design navigation ship has been increased, and the requirements of the navigation clearance scale have increased, and the conditions of navigable waters in bridge area have changed significantly.The bridge exists ship collision risk, it is necessarry to implement the assessment of bridge and ship collision venture, which provides a reference for the anti-collision facilities engineering to protect the bridge. At home and abroad, accidents that cause bridge collapse or serious damage are gradually increasing, and an average of one large bridge is damaged or even collapsed every year. The waterway grade of Beijiang River channel Wushi to Sanshui estuary segment is promoted from grade IV to grade III after the channel regulation, the bridge exists the ship collision risk.Based on AASHTO probabilistic model of ship and bridge collision, the influences of the parameters on the ship bridge collision are probability analyzed, the annual collision probability of the ship collision with each wading bridge pier is calculated, the annual frequency of the collapse of the bridge pier is obtained.