变动中的差序：农民人际信任变迁及其影响因素--基于2002-2015年江西40村五波问卷调查数据的分析

On the Change of Chinese PeasantsInterpersonal Trust and Its Determinants:Analysis of the Data from Five Waves Survey(2002—2015)in 40Villages of Jiangxi Province

江西40村2002至2015年五波问卷调查数据的分析显示:农民人际信任在十余年间呈现"U型变化、波动提升"的整体态势,同时具备"相对稳定、小幅变动"的差序式内在结构。传统差序格局中亲属关系的递推逻辑,则在农民人际信任方面表现为"家庭本位——嵌住关系——开放关系"由内而外地层级过渡。文章从程度与幅度两个角度分析了农民人际信任的影响因素:相对于理性路径的解释,制度与文化的解释更具适用性。因此,如果要营造具有更广更深信任水平的乡村社会,则应一方面提高政府治理水平,增强农民的获得感,取信于民;另一方面继承优秀传统文化,创建和谐的人际交往环境。此外,政府信任、传统文化对人际信任不同结构的影响同样值得后续关注。

Based on the analysis of the five waves survey from the 2002—2015data at 40 villages in Jiangxi province,this paper indicates that interpersonal trust of peasants is emerged as a U-shaped change and general increase.Meanwhile,the internal structure of peasantstrust demonstrates a pattern of difference sequence.The sequence from inside to outside of interpersonal trust of the peasants isfamily relationship——embedded relationship——open relationship＂.This paper also analyzes the influencing factors of interpersonal trust by its degree and range,and the results suggest that the institutional and cultural factors are more applicable for explaining this interpersonal trust than the rational factor.Therefore,the paper advises that to create and improve the interpersonal trust in the rural area,to improve the quality of government governance and to inherit the excellent traditional culture for creating a harmonious interpersonal environment is necessary.In addition,government trust,the impact of traditional culture on the different structures of interpersonal trust is also worthy of subsequent attention.