基于中国新能源汽车发展规划的资源环境效应分析

Analysis of the resource and environment effect based on Chinas new energy vehicle development plan

为了明确未来中国新能源汽车产业发展的资源环境效应,本文对中国汽车总产销保有量、新能源汽车产销保有量的历史数据进行统计分析,通过趋势分析法预测未来变化趋势,并对新能源汽车减少油料消耗、降低大气污染物排放的效果进行分析评价,还重点探讨了新能源汽车产业发展对未来我国锂、钴、镍、石墨、稀土资源供需形势的影响。结果显示,2020年和2025年,中国新能源汽车产销量分别为200万辆和820万辆;2020年和2025年,中国新能源汽车保有量分别为632万辆和3 262万辆。短期内(2025年之前),新能源汽车保有量的增长对节约油料消耗、降低大气污染物排放的作用不大。新能源汽车产量爆发式增长,将对未来我国锂、钴资源的供需形势产生重要影响。我国有必要加强锂、钴资源的勘查与开发,并在全球对锂、钴资源全产业链进行提前布局,以支撑新能源汽车产业的稳健发展,保障中国锂、钴资源的供应安全。

In order to clarify resources and environmental effects of the future development of Chinas new energy vehicle industry,this paper carries on the statistical analysis about the historical data of Chinas automobile production and sales volume,the new energy vehicle production and sales volume.Then we predicts the future trend through trend analysis method,analyses the effect of reducing oil consumption and air pollutant emissions,and discusses the impact of the development of new energy vehicle industry on the supply and demand of Lithium,Cobalt,Nickel,Graphite and Rare Earth resources in China.The results show sales will be 2million and 8.2million in 2020 and 2025,respectively.In 2020 and 2025,the holdings will be6.32 million and 32.62 million,respectively.The development of Chinas new energy vehicle industry has little effect on saving oil consumption and reducing air pollutant emissions in the short term（before 2025）.The explosive growth of new energy vehicles will have an important impact on the future supply and demand for lithium and cobalt resources in China.It is crucial to strengthen the lithium and cobalt resources exploration and development,and carry out advanced layout around the all industry chain of the global lithium and cobalt resources to support the steady development of new energy automotive industry and protect supply security of Chinas lithium and cobalt resources.