快递与第三方智能快递柜合作机制的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis on Cooperation Mechanism of Express Enterprises and Third-party Smart Express Cabinet Enterprises

智能快递柜在一定程度上解决了快递的末端配送问题.首先,基于演化博弈理论构建了快递企业与第三方智能快递柜企业间的演化博弈模型;然后,研究了系统的动态演化过程,分析了二者合作的影响因素;最后,用Matlab进行算例分析.研究结果表明:当总超额收益大于合作总成本时,二者才有开展合作的可能;合作概率与超额收益正相关,与合作成本负相关;存在一个最佳的超额收益分配比例,使得合作概率最大;合理的收益分配机制与成本分担机制有利于二者建立合作关系,实现互利共赢.

The smart express cabinets could solve terminal distribution problems to some extent. Based on the view of evolutionary game theory,an evolutionary game model of express enterprises and third-party smart express cabinet enterprises was established in this paper. Meanwhile,the dynamic evolutionary process and factors influencing the establishment of cooperative relationship were analyzed by this model. Finally,numerical cases were conducted with Matlab simulation software. The results showed that：（ a） Only the excess income was more than the cost,probably the cooperation could be achieved.（ b） Probability of this cooperation had a positive correlation with the excess income,while inversely with the cost.（ c） There existed an optimal proportion of excess income correlation,which could maximize the probability of cooperation.（ d） Reasonable income distribution mechanism and cost sharing mechanism were conducive to the establishment of the cooperative relationship.