聊城市水资源可持续利用评价与预测

Evaluation and Forecast of Water Resources Sustainable Utilization in Liaocheng City

指出了聊城市地处山东省鲁西地带,素有"江北水城"之称。长期以来水资源短缺及供需矛盾制约着聊城经济发展。因此如何实现聊城水资源的可持续利用是各级政府及专家的研究重点。采用层次分析法,选取17项指标构建水资源可利用评价指标体系,对聊城市水资源可持续利用进行了评估,选用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对聊城市未来2017~2022六年的水资源可持续利用水平进行了预测,结果表明:聊城水资源可持续利用水平虽在稳步提升,但水平较低,进而提出了相应的对策和建议。

Liaocheng city located in the lower reaches of the Yellow River region is lacking of water resources city. With the development of economic and society, Liaochengcityhas the increasingly prominent contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.Water resources and water supply shortage has become a ＂bottleneck＂ factor restricting the development of social economy. Therefore, evaluation and forecast level of sustainable utilization of water resources for the future development of Liaocheng city has important guiding significance.Based on the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）, 17 indicators were selectedto build sustainable utilization of water resources evaluation in- dex system andto evaluate sustainable utilization of water resources in Liaocheng city.The grey prediction GM （1, 1） model was used to analyze the futureof Liaocheng city from 2017-2022 for predicting the level of sustainable utilization of water resources. It also put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The results showed that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Liaochengcityis steadily increasing while with low level.