输电网规划全寿命周期综合成本计算研究

Study of Life Cycle Comprehensive Cost of Transmission Network Planning

为比较输电网规划方案的经济性,提出了一种基于全寿命周期成本,在规划期内逐年计算各项成本的线路综合成本计算方法.在计算线路故障率时,根据故障后果明确划分故障类型,并采用改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型对线路故障率进行中长期预测,使线路运维成本计算更准确.在进行经济方案优选时,利用区间分析法计算输电线路综合成本,消除单一定值引起的计算误差,能够更好地比较各方案的优劣性.根据实际工程算例验证文中综合成本模型在新旧混合线路规划中的通用性和有效性.

In order to compare economical schemes of transmission network, a method for calculating the com- prehensive cost of the network based on the life cycle cost is proposed. While computing failure rate of the line, the fault types are clearly divided according to the fault ruselt; and the better grey GM （1,1） model is used to predict the fault rate; so that the cost of the operation and maintenance is calculated more accurately. While carrying out optimized selection of economical schemes, the comprehensive cost of transmission line is calculated by interval analysis method to eliminate the calculation error caused by the single value; and then the advantages and disadvantages of every scheme can be better compared. According to the engineering ex- ample, this thesis verifies universality and validity of comprehensive cost model in mixed new and old line planning.