基于卡尔曼滤波的财务困境预测方法与应用研究——以电力企业为例

A Kalman Filtering-based prediction of financial distress and its application: a case study of power enterprises

以电力企业为研究对象,健康电力企业为对照组,出现财务困境的电力企业为实验组,利用其困境出现前窗口期的一系列财务指标,对其窗口期后出现财务困境进行预测,可以理想地预测财务困境的出现。这一结果表明,基于动态发展观的卡尔曼滤波财务困境预测法,可以较好地预测电力公司的财务困境,且具有较好的推广价值和应用前景。

Enterprises’financial distress is a key topic in financial research.Compared with static methods,dynamic prediction shows more advantages.This study analyzes the recent research development and accordingly proposes a Kalman Filteringbased prediction method.We choose healthy power generation enterprises as the control group and enterprises with financial distress as the experimental group.We manage to predict the financial distress after the window period with the help of financial indicators before the pre-window period.This indicates that the Kalman filtering-based predication method is effective and have wide practical application.