美国县郡地区安全供给失衡的博弈分析

Analyzing Imbalanced Security Provision in American Counties from Game Theory Approach

针对美国县郡偏远区域枪击、抢劫等传统型犯罪多发的安全失衡现状,本文构建了警察和犯罪分子的完全信息静态博弈模型和混合策略博弈模型。发现在现行制度与环境的协同作用下,犯罪率的居高不下与犯罪者选择犯罪逐渐成为弱优势策略,博弈结构从完全信息静态博弈演化为不完全信息静态博弈相关。并以此为基础,提出改进中国基层社会安全供给需关注的四个方面。

To analyze the appalling rate of massive shooting and robbery cases that happened in the counties or towns of United States, this article established both the static game of complete information and mixed strategies matrix for analysis. It turns out that the high crime rate is a result of synergies amid institution and environment, which transformed the nature of the game itself and also made committing crime become a weak advantage strategy for criminal offenders. Then based on the lesson of America, four related sug- gestions are provided for China＇s grassroots security supply.