中国石化行业能耗为何持续增加?——回弹效应及要素替代视角

Why Energy Consumption has been Increasing in Petrochemical Industry in China—From the Respective of Rebound Effect and Elasticity of Substitutability

石化行业作为国民经济支柱产业,能源效率虽有所提高但能源消耗却一直居高不下。为探究其原因,使用Translog成本函数构建要素成本份额方程,测算能源非对称价格响应的回弹效应,并结合能源与资本的绝对替代弹性和相对替代弹性,分析1980—2013年石化行业中回弹效应变化趋势及要素替代关系变化规律,揭示中国石化行业能源消费持续增加的原因。结果表明:(1)1980—2013年,能源回弹效应为32.23%,抵消了部分由技术进步带来的能源消耗量降低;(2)资本对能源的绝对替代性强,而能源对资本的相对替代性强,表明决策者对资本价格变动的敏感性更高,更加倾向于用能源替代资本;(3)分阶段看,在能源短缺和基础设施大规模建设的"六五"和"七五"期间,回弹效应达到40%以上,资本对能源的相对替代弹性占优,"八五"至今回弹效应逐渐下降,能源对资本的相对替代弹性占优。回弹效应以及能源对资本的替代效应是石化行业能耗持续增加的主要原因。

China＇s petrochemical industry is one of pillar industries of national economy. The energy consumption in this industry remains high level although its energy e^ciency has increased. To explore the reason,the paper used the translog cost function to construct the factor cost share equation, measured the rebound effect of asymmetric energy price response, and combined the absolute substitution elasticity and the relative substitution elasticity to analyze the rebound effect and trend of the changing character of the factor substitution relationship as well from 1980 to 2013. The paper also revealed the reasons for the continuous increase of energy consumption in China＇s petrochemical industry. The results show that： （1）The energy rebound effect was 32.23% from 1980 to 2013,offsetting the decrease of energy consumption caused by technical progress; （2）The absolute substitution of capital for energywas dominant that of energy for capital,while the relative substitution of energy for capital was dominant that of capital for energy. （3）During the period of 6thand 7th ＂Five-YearPlan＂,the reasons of shortage of energy supply and the large-scale construction of infrastructure made the rebound effect reached to more than 40%. The relative substitution elasticity of capital for energy was dominant during the period. The relative substitution elasticity of capital for energy was dominant,while the magnitude of rebound effect has been decreasing since 8th ＂Five-YearPlan＂. It could be concluded that the rebound effect and the substitution effect of energy to capital are the main reasons for the continuous increase of energy consumption in China＇s petrochemical industry.