亚太自由贸易区的经济与环境效应及中国的策略选择

The Economic and Environmental Impacts of FTAAP and the Implications for China

本文研究亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)的经济与环境效应,尝试从经济、贸易与环境利益综合平衡的角度为中国的FTAAP战略提出建议。量化突出了削减非关税措施(NTMs)的影响,在GTAP9数据库基础上,通过CGE模型,开展多种"政策试验"。研究结果表明:FTAAP能够带动中国和区域内多数经济体贸易额、GDP、社会福利等的增加,有利于促进亚太地区经济增长;FTAAP对于中国的环境影响由规模效应主导,总体上增加污染排放,但削减NTMs方案情景和自由化中方案情景的结构效应可以促进中国行业结构优化,有助于减少多种污染排放。中国应积极推进FTAAP的建设与积极推进,将其作为实现在亚太区域经贸利益的重要抓手。中国不应排斥甚至应积极推动在FTAAP条文中设置环境条款和章节,在实现经贸利益的同时兼顾环境利益。

In this paper, the economic and environmental effects of FTAAP are studied and the implications are drawn for China by balancing the benefits of trade, economy and the environment. Non-tariff measures（NTMs） are highlighted, and various policy experiments are conducted based on GTAP9 database and our CGE model. The results show that FTAAP will boost the exports and imports, GDP, and the economic welfare of most APEC economies. The scale effect will dominate the influence of FTAAP on pollution emissions and will cause pollution to deteriorate as a whole. The composition effect of NTMs scenario and medium tariff reduction scenario will promote the optimization of China＇s industrial structure and thus help emission reduction. China should actively promote FTAAP, taking it as an important strategy to realize economic and trade interests in the Asia-Pacific region. From the negotiation stance, China should actively promote rather than exclude the set of environmental provisions and chapters in the FTAAP, so as to achieve economic and trade interests as well as the environmental interests.