亚太经济体建立FTA影响因素研究

Research on Determinants to Form FTA between Asia-Pacific Economies

本文在Grossman和Helpman(1995)及Endoh(2006)分析框架的基础上构建FTA成因的理论模型,探讨两经济体建立FTA的影响因素,以亚太经济体为研究样本,采用二值选择模型进行实证检验。结果表明:两经济体地理距离越近、与世界其他国家越远、市场规模越大、市场规模差距越小、要素禀赋差异越大、与世界其他国家要素禀赋差异越小、国家治理水平越高,建立FTA的可能性越大。这一结论在替换代理变量后依然稳健。此外,南南型FTA与南北型FTA的影响因素存在差异。最后结合中国经验提出加快实施自由贸易区战略的政策建议。

Based on three-country model of asymmetric market sizes, the purpose of this paper is to carry out an empirical study on the determinants to form FTA between Asia-Pacific Economies. The results show that the likelihood of an FTA is higher when the partners are： geographically closer, more distant from the rest of the world, with larger and similar market size, with greater difference of factor endowments, smaller difference in factor endowment of the rest of the world, and with higher quality of governance. The conclusion remains robust after replacing proxy variables. In addition, there are differences between South-South FTA and North-South FTA.