全球价值链视角下人民币实际有效汇率的新测算及影响因素分析

A New Measurement of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate and Analysis of Influencing Factors from the Global Value Chain Perspective

随着国际分工的不断深化,中间品贸易导致的重复计算夸大了真实贸易的规模,使得实际有效汇率测算中的重要指标~贸易权重的准确性深受影响。本文在全球价值链框架下,通过引入增加值贸易核算体系,对人民币实际有效汇率进行重新测算,并在此基础上分析影响人民币实际有效汇率的相关因素。研究结果表明:基于增加值的人民币实际有效汇率(Ti VAREER)与传统实际有效汇率(STDREER)的上升趋势总体一致,但在大多数时期内,人民币Ti VAREER的升值趋势较STDREER更加显著;Ti VAREER主要受国外价格水平和双边名义汇率的影响,全球价值链贸易权重的引入在一定程度上减缓了实际有效汇率的上升趋势,这意味着参与全球价值链有利于减缓人民币Ti VAREER的升值趋势。

With the deepening of the international division of labor, the double counting of the intermediate goods exaggerates the real trade scale, and makes the indicator of the real effective exchange rate（REER）--trade weight inaccurate. In this paper, under the framework of global value chain, the RMB is recalculated by introducing the accounting system of value added trade（Ti VAREER）, and on this basis, the relevant factors influencing RMB REER are analyzed. The results show that： the uptrend of Ti VAREER is consistent with the traditional REER（STDREER） but more significant, the appreciation tendency of RMB Ti VAREER is larger than that STDREER in most periods; Ti VAREER is mainly affected by the foreign price level and bilateral nominal exchange rate;the introduction of trade weight in GVC has slowed down the rise of REER to a certain extent, which means that the participation in GVC is beneficial to ease the appreciation tendency of RMB Ti VAREER.