赣南地区养老地产发展适宜性区域差异分析（英文）

Analysis on Regional Difference of Development of Elderly Care Real Estate in Gannan Area

我国老年人口规模的不断扩大及老年人口的高龄化速度的持续加快,对我国经济、社会、家庭等各方面产生深远影响,尤其对我国养老地产业的发展具有极大推动作用。该研究以赣州市为例,利用Z-Scores标准化数据处理模型,从人口宏观发展水平、房地产市场成熟程度、服务业发展程度3个方面的家庭人口规模、人口老龄化率、城镇化率、住宅均价、第三产业占比等5个指标探究养老地产发展的适宜性,采用聚类分析方法根据适宜性强弱将样本区域进行分类。分析结果发现可将赣州市18个县市样本分为3类,适宜性较弱地区、潜力发展地区、重点发展地区。最后,本文提出选取养老地产发展的目标市场可结合区域人口发展趋势及其思想观念、社会经济发展、房地产市场成熟程度、服务业的发展情况四方面因素综合分析,以保障养老地产的可持续运营。

The continuous expansion of the scale of the elderly population and the continuous acceleration of elderly population ageing have had a profound impact on China＇s economy, society and family, especially for the development of China＇s pension indusby, in this paper, taking Ganzhou City as an example, the population size, population ageing rate, urbanization rate and residential area were analyzed using Z-Scores standardized data processing model from three aspects： the population development level, the real estate market maturity degree and the service development level. The proportion of the tertiary industry and other indicators were used to explore the suitability of the development of eldedy care real estate, and cluster analysis was used to classify the sample areas according to the suitability. The results show that the 18 counties and cities in Ganzhou City could be divided into three categories, areas with poor suitability, areas with development potential, key development areas. Finally, suggestions were put forward that the target market of the development of old-age real estate could be comprehensively analyzed by combining the population development trend of the region with its thoughts and concepts, social and economic development, the maturity of the real estate market and the development of the service industry to ensure the sustainable operation of the old-age real estate.