美国对南海有关争议的政策:1995—2017

American Policy Towards the Disputes in the South China Sea: 1995-2017

本文回顾了1995年至2017年间美国对南海有关争议的政策演变,评估了美国加大介入南海有关争议对未来中美关系的影响。1995年至2017年,美国的南海政策呈现出四个特点。第一,美国已经改变政策,以应对南海有关争议紧张程度的变化。第二,美国南海政策的前提是对主权归属争议保持中立。第三,美国不断介入南海有关争议,更多强调维护领土主张的过程和原则,而非争议的最后结果或解决,尤其强调东盟和中国达成约束性的行为准则以管理冲突。第四,美国试图通过突显强制(政策)和违背习惯国际法的领土主张导致的成本,塑造中国在南海的行为。未来,只要领土和海上的管辖权争议得不到解决,相关国家采取宣示和具体行动维护其主张,美国将持续介入南海有关争议的管理。

US policy toward the disputes in the South China Sea has four features. First,the United States has altered its policy in response to changes in the level of tensions in the dispute. Second,US policy toward the South China Sea has been premised on the principle of maintaining neutrality regarding the conflicting claims to sovereignty. Third,as its involvement in managing tensions has increased,the United States has emphasized the process and principles by which claims should be pursued more than the final outcome or the resolution of the underlying disputes,especially conflict management through the conclusion of a binding code of conduct between ASEAN and China. Fourth,US policy in the South China Sea has sought to shape China's behaviour in the South China Sea by highlighting the costs of coercion and the pursuit of claims that are inconsistent with customary international law. Looking forward,the involvement of the United States in seeking to manage tensions in the South China Sea is likely to continue so long as the territorial and maritime jurisdictional disputes remain unresolved and states take declaratory steps and operational actions to assert and defend their claims.