“21世纪海上丝绸之路＂沿线国家贸易竞争性测度及影响因素

Competitiveness of China's Trade with Countries Along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and Its Influencing Factors

本文采用2000—2015年联合国商品贸易统计数据库的出口数据,测算了中国与"21世纪海上丝绸之路"沿线国家的以联合国国际贸易标准分类(SITC Rev.3)的二位数代码分类的出口商品的附加值和出口相似度指数。研究发现:整体而言,东南亚八国和南亚四国与中国贸易竞争性强于西亚七国和非洲四国与中国的贸易竞争性;东南亚八国与中国在低、中、高附加值商品领域上竞争性依次递增,南亚四国与中国在低附加值商品领域上竞争性最强,而西亚七国和非洲四国与中国在各类商品领域中的贸易竞争性均较弱。贸易竞争性影响因素回归结果表明:"一路"沿线国家的金融发展水平、FDI和双边需求结构相似度的提高增强了双边各类商品的贸易竞争性,"一路"沿线国家基础设施的完善增强了双边低、高附加值商品和整体商品的贸易竞争性;而中国FDI的提高降低了双边中附加值商品和整体商品的贸易竞争性,对于双边低、中附加值商品和整体商品的贸易竞争性,中国基础设施的完善有正向影响,中国金融水平的提升有负向影响。基于这些结论,推进产融结合、发展互联网经济模式和建设纠纷解决机制将有利于进一步推动中国与"一路"沿线国家的贸易发展和产能合作。

Using the data of the UNCOMTRADE from 2000 to 2015, this paper calculates the value-added goods and export similarity index of the two-digit codes of SITC Rev. 3 of China and the countries along the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. It is found that, as a whole, the competitiveness between eight countries of South-East Asia and four countries of South Asia with China is stronger than that of seven countries of West Asia and four countries of Africa with China;eight countries in South-East Asia and China are increasing competitiveness in low, medium and high value-added goods, the competitiveness of low value-added goods between four countries in south Asia and China is highest, and seven countries of West Asia and four African countries are less competitive with China＇s various value-added goods. The competitive factors of trade show that the financial development level of countries along the Maritime Silk Road, FDI and the similarity of bilateral demand structure increase the trade competitiveness of bilateral goods, the improvement of national infrastructure along the Maritime Silk Road strengthens the trade competitiveness of bilateral low and high value-added goods and overall commodities; the improvement of China＇s FDI reduces the trade competitiveness of bilateral value-added goods and the whole commodity. For bilateral low and medium value-added goods and overall commodities trade competitiveness, the improvement of China＇s infrastructure has a positive effect, and the promotion of China＇s financial level has a negative effect. Therefore, promoting the integration of the industry and finance, developing the internet economic model and building a dispute resolution mechanism will help China to further deepen the countries＇ trade cooperation along the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road.