中国服务业出口的国别(地区)结构及影响因素——附加值贸易视角的解析

Research on the Countries and regions Structure of China's Service Export Trade and its Influencing Factors:An Analysis from the Perspective of Value Added Trade

本文利用世界投入产出表(WIOD)的附加值贸易框架测算了1995~2011年间中国服务业整体及不同要素密集度类型服务业出口的国别(地区)结构,并与传统总值核算方法的结果进行了对比分析。研究结果显示:(1)中国服务业附加值出口市场主要以发达国家为主,但出口增速较快的地区则多为非发达国家;(2)知识技术密集型服务业出口中发达国家比重较高,但不同要素密集度服务业的出口国别(地区)结构在两种测算方式下存在差异;(3)从影响因素看,货物出口、服务出口、人均GDP等对中国服务业附加值出口具有显著影响,但中国服务业附加值,尤其是资本密集型和知识技术密集型服务业附加值出口更依赖货物出口来实现。对此,中国应发挥政府的引导作用,合理配置资源,提升服务输出能力,并在不同的国家或区域采取差异化服务贸易策略,同时要积极推动制造业服务化以提升我国货物出口中的国内服务含量。

From the perspective of value added trade, this paper uses the input-output table （WlOD） to estimate the export countries＇ （regions＇） structure of overall and different factors intensive type factors of Chinese service industry during 1995 to 2011, and compare with the results got by traditional GDP accounting method. We also discuss the relationship between goods export and service export. The research results show that from the perspective of value added trade, China services mainly export to developed countries, and rapidly grow in undevel- oped countries. A high proportion of knowledge and technology intensive services exports to developed countries, and the country （region） structure of different fac- tors intensive services exports are different with two calculation methods. The cap- ital intensive, knowledge and technology intensive service value-added export de- pends on goods export. In this regard, Chinese government should play the role of guiding to rationally allocate resources to enhance the service output ability, take different service trade strategy in different countries or regions, and actively promote the servitization of manufacturing to enhance domestic service content of Chinese goods export.