中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资:现状、动机与政策建议——基于Heckman两阶段的实证研究

The Direct Investment of China in the Countries along “The Belt and Road”:The Present Situation, Motivation and Policy Recommendations——An Empirical Research Based on Heckman's Two Stage Theory

本文基于"一带一路"沿线59个国家2006~2015年的面板数据,使用Heckman两阶段模型分析了影响中国OFDI进入和规模选择的不同因素,并对不同发展水平的经济体进行了比较。研究表明:(1)从整体来看,中国在该地区的对外直接投资具有显著的市场和资源寻求动机。(2)中国对高收入国家的直接投资主要以市场寻求为动机,东道国的市场规模和对中国的进口依赖是影响OFDI进入和规模选择的主要因素。(3)不同于高收入国家,中国对中低收入国家的直接投资则具有明显的资源寻求动机,较高的资源密集度会提高中国OFDI的规模。最后,在以上研究的基础上,针对中国在该地区对外直接投资的扩展和风险防范提出了相关建议。

This paper is based on panel data of 69 countries which are locat- ed along ＂The Belt and Road＂ from 2006 to 2015. different factors which influ- ence Chinese OFDI entrance and scale along the B＆R are decomposed by using Heckman two-phase model and compared between different developing economic entities. The result shows that： （1） Generally, China＇s foreign direct investment in this region has significant market-seeking and resources-seeking motivation; （2） the major motivation for Chinese direct investment towards the high-income coun- tries is market-seeking. What＇s more, the scale of the market in the host coun- tries and the dependency on Chinese import are the main factors influencing the chances of Chinese OFDI entrance and scale selection; （3） Different from high-in- come countries, as a low and middle income country, Chinese OFDI has more ob- vious motivation for resources. Finally, on the basis of above research, some sug- gestions which are aimed at the expansion of the Chinese OFDI in this region and preventing risks are put forward.