去产能中去杠杆:微观机制与宏观政策

Micro-Mechanism and Macro-Policy for Deleveraging in China

当下的中国经济,既存在着某些高端产能的供给不足问题,也存在着绝对的产能过剩尤其是低端产能过剩的问题,还面临着信贷扩张等原因导致的企业部门高杠杆问题。鉴于银行在中国融资体制的重要角色,在去产能中去杠杆就要把控好银行及相关金融机构的信贷总量和杠杆风险。建立健全各类企业的直接融资和资本金补充渠道,降低对银行借贷的过度依赖,对降低杠杆率也是非常重要的。在淘汰落后产能的同时,要推动国内产业优化重组、规避银行业过度扩张和无序竞争。用政府部门(尤其是中央政府)杠杆率的上升、总需求的扩大对冲企业去杠杆引发的经济下行压力,统筹做好供给侧结构性改革的加减法,可能进一步推动中国经济企稳向好。

The current Chinese economy faces not only the problem of insufficient supply of high-end production capacity, but also the problem of absolute overcapacity, especially in low-end areas. Besides, the high leverage ratio in business sectors caused by credit expansion and other reasons is yet another problem.Given the important role banks play in China＇s financing system, the credit scale and leverage risks of banks and related financial institutions shall be controlled during the process of deleveraging while cutting overcapacity. It is also important for leverage ratio reduction to establish and improve direct financing and capital fund bolstering channels for various enterprises and to reduce their overreliance on bank credit. While eliminating the backward production capacity, the orderly competition of the industrial entities and financial industry shall be promoted to realize the optimization and reorganization of domestic industries and avoid excessive competition in the banking industry. To hedge the downward pressure of economy caused by cutting leverage of enterprises through raising the leverage ratio of the governments（especially the central government） and expanding the aggregate demand, and make overall planning on supply-side structural reform may further promote the stable and positive development of Chinese economy.