气温和CO2浓度变化对陕北地区冬小麦产量影响的模拟分析

Effects of Temperature and CO_2 Concentration on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Northern Shaanxi

分析气候变化对农业生产的影响,有利于制定相应的对策,保障粮食安全。在分析陕北地区1957—2013年气温、降水等气象因子变化趋势的基础上,利用AquaCrop作物生长模型模拟分析气温及CO_2浓度等气象因子变化对陕北地区冬小麦产量的影响。结果表明:陕北地区1957—2013年平均气温呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.22℃/10a,平均降水量呈下降趋势,下降速率为0.15mm/10a。气温每升高0.1℃,榆林和延安两地冬小麦分别增产1.5%和0.5%;CO_2浓度每增加10μmol/mol,两地冬小麦分别增产3.8%和2.0%;气温和CO_2浓度同时变化(即气温升高0.1℃同时CO_2浓度增加10μmol/mol),两地冬小麦分别增产5.1%和2.3%。仅考虑气温及CO_2浓度变化,陕北地区"暖干+高碳型"气候有利于提高冬小麦生产力,未来18年陕北地区冬小麦产量将实现不同程度的增产,在3种不同典型年下与2012年相比,榆林地区2020,2025,2030年枯水年、平水年和丰水年冬小麦分别增产21.2%~31.8%,25.4%~36.0%,29.7%~40.7%;延安相应3种典型年下增产3.3%~8.3%,4.4%~9.7%,4.8%~10.5%。因此,可在陕北地区适度增加冬小麦种植面积,增加农业产量。

Analyzing the impact of climate change on agricultural production is beneficial to develop appropriate strategies and protect food security.In the study,thetrends of meteorological factors in 1957—2013, and the effects of temperature and CO2 concentration on winter wheat yield were simulated by AquaCrop model in Northern Shaanxi Province.The results showed that the annual temperature in Northern Shaanxi increased at a rate of 0.22 ℃/10 a,while the annual precipitation decreased at a rate of 0.15mm/10 ain 1957—2013.With an increase of 0.1 ℃in the annual temperature,the winter wheat yield in Yulin and Yan＇an increased by 1.5% and 0.5% ,respectively.When annual CO2 concentration increased by 10μmol/mol,the winter wheat yield increased by 3.8% and 2% in Yulin and Yan＇an,respectively.When the annual temperature and CO2 concentration rose simultaneously（i.e.,temperature rose by 0.1 ℃ and CO2 concentration increased by10μmol/mol）,the winter wheat yield increased by 5.1% and 2.3% in Yulin and Yan＇an,respectively.Only considering the variation of temperature and CO2 concentration,the warm-dry and high-carbon climate were beneficial to improve wheat production in Northern Shaanxi.The winter wheat yield would increase at different degrees in the next 18 years in Northern Shaanxi region.Under three typical years（i.e.dry,normal and wet year）,the winter wheat yield in 2020,2025 and 2030 in Yulin would increase by 21.2% ~31.8% ,25.4% ~36.0% and 29.7% ~40.7% respectively compared to that in 2012,whereas,the wheat yield in Yan＇an would increase by 3.3% ~8.3% ,4.4% ~9.7% and 4.8% ~10.5% ,respectively.Therefore,it is suitable to increase the winter wheat planting area moderately to increase agricultural output in Northern Shaanxi.