房地产价格波动与商业银行贷款损失准备--基于中国城市商业银行的实证研究

Real Estate Price Fluctuation and Loan Loss Provisions of Commercial Banks:Empirical Research Based on the City Commercial Banks in China

本文基于2005-2013年中国城市商业银行的数据,分析了房地产价格波动对银行计提贷款损失准备的影响。本文发现,房地产价格增幅与城市商业银行贷款损失准备显著正相关,且在房地产价格增幅扩大时,"四大"会计师事务所审计的银行和国有银行计提更多的贷款损失准备。进一步的研究还发现,当城市商业银行在房价涨幅更高的地区设有分支机构时,银行计提更多的贷款损失准备。本文的研究结论对防范房价波动给城市商业银行带来的经营风险和金融风险具有积极的意义。

Using data of city commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2013, this study analyzes the influence of real estate price fluctuation on city commercial banks＇ loan loss provisions. This study finds that real estate price increasing has a significant positive correlation with city commercial banks＇ loan loss provisions. This study also finds that banks audited by ＂Big - Four＂ audit firms and state - owned banks tend to reserve greater loan loss provisions when real estate price increases. Further analysis shows that banks tend to reserve greater loan loss provisions when they have branches in area with higher real estate growth rate. These findings help city commercial banks to avoid operating risks and financial risks caused by real estate price fluctuation.