中国区域能源效率及其影响因素——基于面板随机前沿模型的分析

Regional Energy Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in China——Analysis Based on Panel Stochastic Frontier Model

基于2000—2015年省级面板数据,利用面板随机前沿模型估计了我国30个省份的区域能源效率,并通过对无效率项的条件期望估计,检验了人均GDP、城镇化率、工业结构、对外贸易和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响。能源效率估计结果显示,我国能源效率整体上呈逐年上升趋势,但区域间的差异较明显,呈现东部高、中西部低的分布特征。无效率项的估计结果表明,人均GDP和城镇化率对我国能源效率均存在显著的积极影响,对外贸易则不利于我国能源效率的改善,工业结构和能源消费结构对我国能源效率的影响在统计上不显著,但从弹性系数的估计值看,工业比重和煤炭消费比重的增加倾向于降低我国的能源效率。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2015, the regional energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China during the above period were estimated by using Panel Stochastic Frontier Model, and the impact of per capita GDP, urbanization, industrial structure, foreign trade and energy consumption structure on China＇s energy efficiency were tested by modeling the condition expectations of inefficient item. Empirical results showed that China＇s energy efficiency increased year by year as a whole,but the regional difference was obvious,that were higher in east but lower in central and west China. The estimation results also showed that per capita GDP and urbanization had significant positive effects on China＇s energy efficiency, the impact of foreign trade was just opposite, but the impact of industrial structure and energy consumption structure were statistically insignificant.