城乡居民社会养老保险个体替代率精算及实证分析

Individual Substitution Rate Actuarial of Urban and Rural Residents Social Pension Insurance and Related Empirical Analysis

以国发[2014]8号文件规定为依据,构建城乡居民社会养老保险个体替代率精算模型,对城乡居民养老金个体替代率进行测算。研究发现:城乡居民养老金个体替代率很低,城乡居民社会养老保险难以保障城乡居民在老年时的基本生活,土地养老和家庭养老在当前依然承担着无可替代的重要地位。在不考虑"中人"补缴的情况下,城乡居民养老金个体替代率总体上随着参保者参保年龄的增长呈下降趋势;在考虑"中人"补缴的情况下,城乡居民养老金个体替代率总体上随着参保者参保年龄的增长呈现出先下降后上升的趋势,有趣的是个体替代率最低点的出现和个人账户收益率有关。此外,提高个人的缴费档次、增加政府补贴、提高个人账户投资收益率,均可明显地提高城乡居民养老金个体替代率,并且如果个人账户养老金的积累速度与城乡居民人均收入增长速度持平,养老金个体替代率将会保持一定的稳定性。这一研究结果为实现城乡居民养老保险保基本、可持续的发展方针进行制度内参数优化提供了参考。

This paper constructs actuarial model and estimates urban and rural social pension insurance individual replacement rate basis on government document No. 8 in 2014.The study found that individual replacement rate of urban and rural residents is very low, it is difficult to guarantee the basic living standard of urban and rural residents in old age, land endowment and family in the current pension still plays an important role irreplaceable. Without considering supplementary payment, the individual pension replacement rate of urban and rural residents insured with age decreased; consider supplementary payment, the individual pension replacement rate of urban and rural residents insured age showed decreased and then increased, the individual replacement rate is the lowest point of the emergence and individual account yield. In addition, to improve the pay grade, personal increased government subsidies, improve personal accounts the investment rate of return can significantly improve individual replacement rate of urban and rural residents, but if the accumulation rate of personal pension accounts to keep up with the urban and rural residents＇ per capita income growth rate,then, individual replacement rate of urban and rural residents will maintain a certain stability. The results of this study provide a reference for sustainable development policy of urban and rural residents pension insurance.