结构性税改下我国财政赤字的影响效应研究

Research on the Influence of Fiscal Deficit under the Structural Tax Reform

随着我国营业税改征增值税的不断推进,政策性税改的全面推行,将给我国政府带来极大的财政压力,我国财政赤字规模也已经提高到了历史新高。基于此,我们将依据财政赤字产生的原理,围绕我国开展"营改增"后财政赤字产生的变化进行研究。通过对比营业税改征增值税前后增值税、营业税以及整体税收收入的变化,分析政策性税改对税收收入产生的直接影响,进一步通过建立财政赤字多元回归模型探究"营改增"对我国财政赤字的传导效应。

The continuous reform of replacing the business tax with a value-added tax and the carrying out of policy tax reform in an all-round way will bring great financial pressure to our government; and China＇s fiscal deficit has increased to a record high. Based on these as well as the generation principle of the fiscal deficit,a study is carried out on the changes of the fiscal deficit after the tax reform.Firstly,we analyze direct impact of tax reform on the tax revenue by comparing the changes among the value-added tax,business tax and the total tax revenue before and after replacing the business tax with a value-added tax. Then we explore the transmission effect of replacing the business tax with a value-added tax on China＇s fiscal deficit through establishing a multiple regression model of the fiscal deficit.