市场的因果:对奥本海默家族2011年退出戴比尔斯钻石公司及相关市场反应的分析

Cause and Effect of the Market:An Analysis of the Event that Oppenheimer Family Who Signed Out De Beers in 2011 and the Dependent Reflect of Market

戴比尔斯是百年钻石产业的龙头,是奥本海默家族主导建立"钻石帝国"的核心企业。2011年11月,奥本海默家族做出了一个惊人的决定——出售所持有戴比尔斯的全部股权给其母公司英美集团,退出钻石产业。其后,国内、国际的钻石市场及其股票持有公司英美公司股票均出现了显著的下跌。通过对2011年前后市场状况、国际与国内市场数据的分析和比较,探索了奥本海默家族退出事件和钻石市场供求关系可能具有的内在联系,分析了导致这种变化市场因素之间的因果关系。无可否认,一个曾对钻石产业发展起到关键性作用的家族突然宣布放弃经营了80年的产业,可能会被市场深刻解读并反作用于市场,从而加深市场的反应。但现有的证据显示,2011-2015年上游钻石市场的波动更大的可能是全球金融危机和钻石产业内部矛盾耦合强化的结果,奥本海默家族预见到了这种矛盾爆发的基本时间点及可能对钻石产业的影响。显然,奥本海默家族退出不是钻石市场变化的主要原因,而是其结果。统计英美集团10年间股票LSE(The London School of Economics and Political Science,伦敦政治经济学院)价格指数可以发现,英美集团的股票从2008年开始长期处在一个大体下跌的过程,而在2008年经济危机之后,股票市场经历了不寻常的快速反弹,这有可能是市场对金融危机的过度反应的修正。显然,转换运作理由很难成立。更大的可能是,奥本海默家族可能对经济危机后的市场波动有系统的判断,认为世界钻石市场可能会由于市场的竞争及其它因素导致风险无法控制,进行股权出售更大可能是规避戴比尔斯品牌面临的市场风险,获得家族利益最大化。中国国内生产总值在2010、2011年均保持18%以上的增速,而在2012年突然跌至10%,其后一直下跌直至2015年的6%。这说明以中国为代表的下游市场已经出现了衰弱的指征。另据国际权威的Rapaport报价表的IDEX(International diamond exchange,国际钻石交易所价格指数)、钻石国际报价以及克拉钻RDI(Rapaport diamond index,雷朋波特钻石指数)和RAPI(Rapaport per-carat index,1克拉钻石指数)指数,可以发现下游钻石市场在2011年达到一个峰值。此前从2009—2011年呈现快速度的增长。而在2011年达到峰值后已经呈现衰退趋势。从上海钻石交易所年报收集上海钻石交易所2001-2014年共14年时间内的钻石交易额数据。2009—2011年,钻石交易额以数倍于之前的速度从15.21亿美元增长到47.07亿美元,之后的2012年迅速下跌至38.68亿美元。直到2014年才勉强追回至51.31亿美元。2011年左右国内经济指标增长率保持稳定,但GDP增速从2010-2011年的10个百分点以下降到了2012年及其后的6%-7%,即中国经济开始进入新的"经济新常态"。奥本海默家族很可能意识到了市场将出现一个增速放缓的调整期,因此通过选择出售钻石产业的股权而减小在调整期可能因市场增速变慢、公司竞争加剧出现的市场风险。钻石上游市场的竞争主要受到国际矿业市场产业博弈的影响。在2008年,国际主要矿业公司的股票都遭遇了经济危机的严重打击。但在2011年底,力拓、必和必拓、淡水河谷等股票均开始稳定上涨,而英美集团的股票则未出现上涨趋势。可以认为,在上游产业链中,英美公司以及戴比尔斯在2008-2011年的竞争中没有优势。相比于2000年以前戴比尔斯主导甚至垄断的钻石市场,2011年前后的钻石开采链条的市场份额已经明显分散。因此,奥本海默家族及时进行戴比尔斯股权转让以规避供应链条上受压产生的市场风险,并通过戴比尔斯和英美集团的资源重组,方便二者在市场下游和上游的产业博弈中进行重组改革是明智和合理的选择。进入21世纪以来,CVD气相淀积法合成钻石的技术开始获得突破。2010年,CVD合成大颗粒单晶已可以商业性生产,CVD钻石的成本优势和很快的发展速度迟早会在钻石行业占有一席之地。奥本海默家族很可能意识到并判断将来合成钻石对天然钻石市场的冲击,对钻石市场前景持较为负面的看法,为了避免合成钻石冲击的风险而将戴比尔斯公司的风险交由英美集团进行规避或者分散,显然也是一种明智的选择。合成钻石对下游产业可能产生的冲击加剧的趋势无法排除,因此,也难以排除这也可能是奥本海默家族退出钻石产业的深层次原因之一。在2011年11月奥本海默家族出售戴比尔斯股权之后,敏感的钻石商和投资商应该会审慎行事。根据英美集团年报统计了英美集团在伦敦证券交易所的短期LSE股票波动,可以发现在2011年11月英美集团股票达到了一个历史较高点,股票市值处在一个高位。从短期来看,奥本海默家族出售戴比尔斯股权前后是公司股票价格一个短期性的极大值。但此次事件并未对英美集团产生较大影响,半月之后英美集团股票市值就重回高位。奥本海默家族出售股权的行为更大程度是影响上游,对下游产业的影响较为有限。综合上述分析,可以发现,原先钻石产业的龙头企业戴比尔斯正面对从上游到下游、从供给侧到需求侧的全面挑战。钻石市场在经历了金融危机后,在2009-2011年异常上涨达到高位,奥本海默家族预计到钻石供给侧受到矿业公司博弈竞争可能产生的市场压力和这种压力传导可能对钻石产业链的影响,2011年11月宣布将持有的全部戴比尔斯股份卖给英美集团并退出钻石产业;2009年前后,英美集团已经开拓了许多新的投资领域进行风险分散管理。在钻石行业举足轻重的奥本海默家族将戴比尔斯出售给英美集团,短期内可能造成投资商对市场发展的疑虑而影响了英美集团公司的股价,导致公司股票价格的短期下跌;2011年后市场的衰退及波动是由于多个因素耦合导致的。上游矿业巨头和新兴矿业公司之间的竞争、经济危机后中游市场过度投机以及下游市场缺乏有效协调机制等因素可能对市场的波动产生了联合的影响,是钻石产业链内部供求结构性矛盾爆发的产物。

De Beers is a leading company of the century diamond industry, which is the core company of the Diamond Empire of Oppenheimer Family. In Nov. 2011,the family made a breathtaking decision to sell the stock right that they have of De Beers to its mother company Anglo American （AA. ） , and signed out the diamond industry. Then, the domestic and in-ternational stocks market and the stocks of AA were all decreased. It is to explore the inner connection between the change of diamond market and the decision of the family, and to ana-lyze the reasons of change by analyzing and comparing the market condition and the data of the international and domestic market around 2011. There is no doubt that it will be deeply analyzed that the family who has been a key of diamond industry for 80 years made a decision and be used to prove the response of the market. However, the present results show the market change for 2011 - 2015 is more likely a result of the combination of global financial crisis and the intensified inner industrial conflict, whose time and influence to the diamond market the family may be predict. Obviously, it is the result of the change of diamond mar-ket that the family singed out it instead of the reason.It can be found that there is a decreasing progress, except an unmoral quick rebounding to correct the excessive response for the economic crisis after it in 2008 by counting the Lon-don School of Economics and Political Science （LSE） value index of AA. during the 10 years. Obviously, it is hard to be explained by conversion operation. It is more probable that the family got a judgment to the movement of the market after the crisis, and considered the world wild diamond market will be out of control because of the completing, then sold the stock right to avoid the danger which De Beers faced, and made the benefit lager.The gross domestic product（ GDP） of China has kept the speed over 1 8 % in 2010 and 2011,and has decreased to 6 % in 2015 after 201L It is proved that the downstream market such as China occurs a feeble characteristic. According to the powerful value table of Rapa- port,the International diamond exchange（ IDEX） value index,and the Rapaport diamond in- dex（ RDI） as well as Rapaport per-carat index（ RAPI） of pre-carat diamond show that the downstream market has a peak in 2011. Before it, the market increased fast. But it occurs a declining trend after 2011. It can be counted that the exchange value of Shanghai diamond exchange in 10 years from 2001 to 2014 from the annual report of Shanghai diamond ex-change. The value had a timely speed from 1. 52 billion dollars to 4. 71 billion dollars from 2009 to 2011, and had the decreased value of 3. 87 billion dollars in 2012, until the 5. 13 bil-lion dollars followed back in 2014. As for 2011, the economical index in the nation is stable, with the lower increasing speed of GDP of 6 % - 7 %, which changed from 1 0 % from 2010 to 2011 with a new economic norm of Chinese economics. It is probable that the family consid-ered that the market would occur a correcting term with low increasing speed and chose to sold the stock right of the diamond industrial to keep the market danger made by the low in-creasing speed in the term and the powerful completing among the companies.The upstream market completing is mainly influenced by the international mineral mar-ket completing. In 2008,the main mineral companies in the world all faced to the serious fighting of economic crisis. Nevertheless？ at the end of 2011, the stock value of Rio Tinto, BHP and VALE began to rise stably except AA. So that it is considered that AA. and De Beers had no advantage in the upstream industrial line from 2008 to 2011. Compared with the market led or monopolized by De Beers before 2000,the mining line market obviously sepa-rated away from 2011. Therefore the family transit the stock right on time to avoid the mar-ket danger caused by the pressure of the providing line, and made it convenient to complete in the upstream and downstream by remaking De Beers and AA. , all of which was a vise and reasonable choice.In the 21st century, CVD diamond is getting breaks. In 2010, big crustal CVD diamonds were able to product for business, because of whose advantages of cost and developing speed can help it to get a position in the diamond industry. The family may be considered and judged that there would be a fight between the synthetic diamond and the natural diamond market, and did not have a positive view to the diamond market, and had a vise thought to a- void the danger from the fighting of synthetic diamond to separate De Beers？ danger to A A. So it cannot be ignored that it is a deeply reason that the family signed out of the diamond in-dustry, because they cannot ignore the increasing fighting to the downstream industry from synthetic diamond.After selling the stock right of the family in Nov. 2011, the sensitive diamond business-men and investors would act in caution. According to the statistics of the London Stock Ex- change（ LSE） index of AA. , there was a peak of stock value in Nov. 2011. In short term, the time that the family sold the stock had a peak of stock value of the company. However, there was little influence to AA. ？ because the stock value went back in half month. The action of selling the stock has more influence to the upstream instead of the downstream.Complexing the analysis and drawing a conclusion, De Beers,the top company of dia-mond industry, faced the challenge form upstream to downstream, and moved from supply side to demand side. The diamond market abnormally increased to a peak after the financial crisis, which led the family predict the supply side of diamond might be influenced by the completing pressure among the mining companies, selling all of the stock right and signing out of the diamond industry in Nov. 2011; in 2009, AA. opened many new fields to separate the danger. The family who has an important position in the diamond industrial sold De Beers to AA. , which shortly influenced the stock value of AA. to drop because of the worry about investors; and the market decreasing after 2011 was caused by many reasons. The combining reasons of the completing among the huge mining companies and new companies of upstream market, the excessive speculation after economic crisis of middle stream market, and lacking of powerful coordination mechanism of downstream market, which is a product of the breaking contradiction of supply and demand in the diamond industrial line.