气候变化对典型气象年数据的影响及能耗评估——以中国北方大城市天津为例

Climate Change Impacts on Typical Meteorological Year and Energy Consumption for Buildings in Tianjin,A Large City in Northern China

本文以中国北方城市天津为例,采用Sandia及Danish两种方法生成典型气象年(TMY)数据,并借助TRNSYS软件模拟得到3个时段(1961—1990年、1971—2000年和1981—2010年)典型办公建筑的逐时负荷,评估气候变化对典型气象年数据及模拟负荷的影响。结果表明:Sandia和Danish生成典型气象年的方法在天津均有较好的适用性,Sandia方法采用6个气象要素生成的典型气象年数据代表性满足要求。受气候变化影响,典型气象年数据变化较大,采暖期(11月—翌年3月)较制冷期(6—9月)的变化更明显;从30年均值差异看,1981—2010年相对于1961—1990年,建筑供热负荷减少5.2%,而制冷负荷增加1.6%。因此,在使用典型气象年数据进行建筑设计能耗评估时需充分考虑气候变化的影响,加快典型气象年数据的生成和更新工作。基于天津现行使用的典型气象年数据模拟得到的办公建筑制冷负荷较1981—2010年偏低6.7%,供热负荷偏高4.7%。表明采用现行典型气象年数据进行建筑能耗评估时,会造成制冷负荷偏低,供热负荷偏高,从而降低人体舒适度及造成供热能源浪费。

Typical meteorological year（TMY） data were generated using two methods, i.e., Sandia and Danish methods. The load of a typical office building in Tianjin was simulated by the TRNSYS software based on the meteorological year data. The results showed that both Sandia and Danish methods can be well used to generate TMY in Tianjin. The TMY data were obviously changed under the conditions of climate change, and the impact of climate change in the heating period（November-March） was more obvious than that in the cooling period（JuneSeptember）. Compared to the heating load during 1961-1990, the building heating load of 1981-2010 decreased by 5.2%, while the building cooling load increased by 1.6%. Therefore, the impact of climate change should be fully considered in the process of evaluating energy consumption of building design by using the TMY data. The generation and updating of TMY data should be quickly made. Compared to the cooling load during 1981-2010, the simulated building cooling load based on present TMY data decreased by 6.7%, while the building heating load increased by 4.7%. This shows building energy consumption estimation by using present TMY data in Tianjin may overestimate heating load but underestimate cooling load. Thus, it may decrease the body comfort of indoor environment and lead to waste of heating energy.