贷款规模、房地产投资与城市经济增长——基于283个地级以上城市的经验分析

Bank Loans,Real Estate Investment and Urban Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis on 283 Cities at Municipal and above Levels

通过理论分析和实证研究考察贷款投资取向于房地产行业与经济增长的逻辑关系。理论分析基于中间品投入生产函数得出边际成本小于平均成本的结论,贷款投资于房地产开发可以更好地发挥资本效力,推动房地产行业发展,而且房地产行业具有规模效应,产品价格应该是逐步下降的;进一步选取中国283个地级以上城市进行实证检验,考虑变量的内生性,引入工具变量,并通过系统GMM方法、联立方程模型对三者间的交互关系进行考察;通过引入经济距离的空间杜宾模型进行稳健性检验,结果显示:贷款对经济增长的直接效应较小,而通过拉动房地产行业发展对经济增长的间接效用较大,与房地产开发对经济的拉动作用相比,上一期的经济发展状况对本期房地产开发投资有更大的影响;职工数量和职工工资对贷款规模有正向的促进作用,而对房地产开发以及经济增长的作用不稳健。据此,提出房地产"去库存"、调控行业杠杆、推进房屋租赁和实施房产财税改革等建议。

Based on theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper examines the relationship between loan investment oriented real estate and economic growth.First,by using intermediate inputs production function,the theoretical analysis indicates that marginal cost is less than average cost and the real estate industry owns economies of scale,loans to invest in real estate can better promote economy than itself,house prices should be gradually decreased;Second,we work on empirical test by choosing 283 cities above prefecture level in China.Considering the endogenous variables,using instrumental variables,and the system GMM method,simultaneous equation model on the interactive relationship between the three is discussed,finally the robustness test by spatial Durbin model there the spatial weight matrix was made by economic distance,the empirical results show that the direct effect the loan has made on the economic growth is smaller than the loan made on economy by stimulating the development of the real estate industry.Compared with the effects real estate made on eonomy,economic situation last year has a greater impact on real estate.The number of workers and workers＇ wages have a positive effect on the scale of loans,which on the role of real estate development and economic growth is not stable.Accordingly,we put forward to promote real estate destocking and rental housing,regulate the industry lever and take on the implementation of property tax reform.