基于耕地压力指数的新疆粮食安全状况研究

Grain Security of Xinjiang Based on Cropland Pressure Index

【目的】研究新疆1949~2012年64年的耕地面积和粮食产量的变化趋势,并针对耕地压力指数变化的特点,预测新疆未来10年的粮食安全状况,为新疆粮食安全提出相应的对策。【方法】运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型以及GM(1,1)灰色预测模型定量分析新疆粮食安全程度。【结果】1949~2012年新疆最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈增加趋势,并且在未来10年耕地压力指数仍将大于1且呈显著增长趋势。【结论】新疆的粮食安全形势将愈加严峻,大力发展节水农业、增加农业科技投入、确保耕地"占-补"平衡等对策来保障粮食安全。

【Objective】To study the changing tendency of cultivated land and grain yield in Xinjiang in the past 64 years and forecast the food security situation in Xinjiang in the next 10 years according to the characteristics of cultivated land pressure index,and corresponding countermeasures to ensure grain security in Xinjiang will be put forward.【Method】The minimum per capita arable land area and the cultivated land pressure index model and the GM（ 1,1） gray prediction model were used to quantitatively analyze the food safety level in Xinjiang.【Result】The minimum per capita arable land area and cultivated land pressure index of Xinjiang increased from 1949 to 2012,and the cultivated land pressure index in the next 10 years would be greater than 1 and showed a significant growth trend.【Conclusion】Xinjiang＇s food security is unsafe and the future food security situation will become more and more serious. In view of this situation,it is proposed to develop water-saving agriculture,increase agricultural science and technology investment and maintain the amount of cultivated land to ensure food security.