江苏省工业发展与大气污染物排放的时空演变关系

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Industrial Development and Air Pollutant Emission in Jiangsu Province

选取2001—2014年的相关数据,采用环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC曲线)模型和物理学的区域重心模型,分析了江苏省工业发展与大气污染物排放的时空演变关系。结果表明,2001年以来,随着工业总产值的增加,工业废气排放量呈现增加的趋势,虽然增加幅度有所减缓,但是拐点还未出现,而SO_2和烟粉尘排放强度已经跨过EKC曲线高峰进入二者协调发展的新阶段。时空演变关系表明,工业总产值和污染物排放强度重心均有较大的移动,并且二者的移动方向呈现相反的趋势,而SO_2和烟粉尘排放强度重心的移动方向具有相同的趋势,并且移动幅度接近。指出,当污染物减排到一定程度时,新的技术和政策措施必须同步发展,才能使污染物排放得到进一步控制,最终进入第五个阶段。

Based on the data of 2001—2014,the evolution of relationship between spatial development and industrial emissions of air pollutants of Jiangsu province were analyzed by models of environmental Kuznets curve（ EKC） and regional center model.Results showed that： since 2001,with the increase of gross industrial product,the amount of industrial waste gas emissions has increased,and the increase has slowed down,but the turning point has not yet appeared,while sulfur dioxide and smoke dust emission intensity had stepped over ＂high peak＂of EKC and gone into the new stage that both were developing harmoniously. The relationship between time and space evolution shows that the focus of the industrial development and the intensity of the emission intensity of the pollutants are moving,and the moving direction showed the opposite trend,meanwhile,the focus of sulfur dioxide and smoke dust emission intensity had the same trend and close moving amplitude. However,when the pollutant emission reduction to a certain extent,new technology and policy measures must be developed in order to further control the emission of pollutants,and enter the fifth stage.