出口产品的异质性与国家经济复杂度演化——基于反射法测算的国家经济复杂度指数

Heterogeneity of Exporting Products and Evolution of Economic Complexity——Based on the Method of Reflection

本文借助复杂网络的方法,根据2080329组SITC四位码数据,计算了1999—2013年149个国家的经济复杂度指数并揭示其演化规律,同时具体分析中国的比较优势产品。通过研究发现不同国家的经济复杂度指数变化基本平稳,发达国家的经济复杂度指数大大高于发展中国家;经济复杂度与经济增长之间总体保持着明显的正相关关系。此外,中国具有比较优势产品的数量一直在增加、多样性特征明显,但由于高复杂度产品种类的缺失,增长空间在减少,经济复杂度演化并不乐观。因此,中国经济结构调整的落脚点是强化创新和技术进步,提高产品的异质性和专业化程度。

We use method of reflection to compute measures of 149 country complexity from 1999 to 2013 based on the SITC version 2 four-digital export products data and analyze comparative advantages of Chinese products.We find that:economic complexity index holds steady in different countries,economic complexity index in developed countries is greatly higher than that of developing countries,economic complexity and economic growth maintain a significant positive correlation.Besides,the variety of the export products has been increasing in China,but without high technical content and significant heterogeneity,the increase speed has been decreasing and the evolution of Chinese economic complexity is in a dilemma.Therefore,The essences of the Chinese economy structure adjustment should be strengthen innovation and technological progress,improve the degree of heterogeneity and specialized products.