技术创新、产业结构升级对就业的影响——基于省级面板数据的分析

Research on the Impact of Technological Innovation,Upgrading of the Industrial Structure on Employment——Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of Province

技术创新和产业结构升级是经济"新常态"的两个主要特征。以2000—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据为研究对象,采用动态面板模型,分析技术创新、产业结构升级与就业量之间关系。具体研究结果如下:技术创新与就业之间存在U形关系,即跨越U形曲线的拐点,技术创新的补偿效应大于挤出效应,对就业的影响将由负转变为正,而且我国目前仍处于U形曲线的左端;产业结构升级可以促进中部和东部地区的就业,但对西部的就业并不造成影响,积极引入外商投资是增加西部就业的有效手段。

The ＂ new normal＂ of the economy has two main features： technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 2000 to 2014,this paperaims to discuss the relationships between the technological innovation,the upgrading of industrial structure and the employment by applying dynamic panel data model. The results shows as follows： There is an U-shaped relationship between technological innovation and employment; when the technological innovation intensity is improved,the compensation effect of technological innovation will be greater than the extrusion effect,and its impact on employment will become positive from negative; in addition,the technological innovation intensity of our nationis still on the left side of the U-shaped curve. The upgrading of industrial structure can promote the employment ofthe central and eastern regions,but it doesn＇taffect the employment in the westregion. In addition,foreign investment growth plays a key role in boosting western region ＇s employment.