丘陵山区1403-1911年旱涝灾害序列重建与演变规律--以赣中吉泰盆地为例

Sequence Reconstruction and Evolution of Drought and Flood Disasters in Hilly and Mountainous Areas in China——A Case Study of Jitai Basin

干旱和洪水是造成损失最多的自然灾害,面对严峻的旱涝形势,系统研究百年尺度下旱涝灾害的发生规律具有重要的现实意义。研究选取中国南方典型的丘陵盆地——吉泰盆地作为研究区域,系统收集整理1403-1911年的旱涝灾害史料,重建长时间旱涝灾害序列。利用频率分析、突变分析、周期分析和趋势分析等研究手段,对吉泰盆地近500年来的旱涝灾害等级序列进行诊断,结果表明:1)1403-1911年期间,吉泰盆地发生各类旱涝灾害共315次,其中旱灾138次,平均2.28 a一遇;涝灾177次,平均1.78 a一遇,涝灾发生的频率大于旱灾。2)在95%置信水平下,吉泰盆地旱涝演变的突变点主要有:1452年由涝转旱,1468年由旱转涝,1485年由涝转旱,1574年由旱转涝,1662年由涝转旱,1683年由旱转涝,1801年由涝转旱,1826年由旱转涝,1866年由涝转旱。3)吉泰盆地旱涝灾害等级序列的小波变换揭示出8个主要周期,分别是5-8 a、13 a、31-33 a、23 a、54-58 a、140 a、200 a、300 a。从出现的次数来看,54-58 a周期出现最多,说明吉泰盆地旱涝灾害的演变在54-58 a存在主要振荡周期。4)15世纪、18世纪和19世纪涝灾出现频率高于旱灾,16世纪、17世纪和20世纪旱灾出现频率高于涝灾。总体上来看吉泰盆地1403-1911年期间涝灾的强度大于旱灾,特别是18世纪后,涝灾的强度明显大于旱灾。本研究结果可以为吉泰盆地长时间尺度下的旱涝发生规律及未来旱涝预提供历史相似型和基础数据。

Drought and floods are the most devastating natural disasters. It is of great practical significance to systematically study the occurrence rule of drought and flood disaster on long time scale. In this study,a typical hilly basin,Jitai Basin in southern China was selected as the study area. We systematically collect the historical data of drought and flood during the period 1403-1911,and reconstructs the long drought and flood disaster sequence. Using the methods of frequency analysis,mutation analysis,periodic analysis and trend analysis,this paper analyzes the drought and flood disaster grade sequences in the Jitai Basin in the past 500 years. The results show： 1） During the period from1403 to 1911,there were 315 floods and droughts in the Jitai Basin,including 138 droughts in every2. 28 years; 177 floods in every 1. 78 years. 2） At the 95% confidence level,the main changes of drought and flood in Jitai Basin are mainly at these year： 1452 a,1485a,1662 a,1801a,1866 a from flood to drought; and 1468 a,1574a,1683 a,1826a from drought to flood. 3） The wavelet transform of the sequence of drought and flood disaster in Jitai Basin reveals eight major cycles： 5-8 a,13 a,31-33 a,23 a,54-58 a,140 a,200 a and 300 a. 4） In the 15 th,18th and 19 th century,the frequency of occurrence of floods was higher than that of drought. In the 16 th,17th and 20 th century,the frequency of occurrence of drought was higher than that of flood. The results of this study can provide historical similarity and basic data for the occurrence and distribution of droughts and floods in the Jitai Basin,and the prediction of future drought and flood.