油气价格弹性对LNG汽车应用推广的影响

Impact of oil & gas price elasticity on the widespread use of LNG vehicles

油气价格波动与LNG汽车的发展密切相关,在油价下调、气价上升的形势下,LNG汽车的价格优势愈发不明显,其推广面临着严峻的挑战。四川省"富气贫油"的能源结构为LNG汽车的发展提供了良好的先决条件,该省也成为全国LNG汽车应用推广的一个典型代表,但在实际推广过程中仍遇到了瓶颈。为此,构建了油、气价格变动对LNG汽车需求量影响的双对数需求函数模型;根据四川省2003—2015年的油气价格及LNG汽车保有量数据,运用Eviews软件计算了理论模型的相关参数,并对其进行检验和分析。结果表明:(1)四川省LNG汽车呈现刚性需求——气价每增长1%,LNG汽车需求量增长1.84%;(2)汽油和柴油是天然气的替代能源,油价每降低1%,LNG汽车的需求量则减少4.73%,这也是低油价形势下LNG汽车需求量剧烈下降的主要原因。结论认为:(1)燃气价格、燃油价格、人均GDP等影响LNG汽车需求量的直接因素占总影响因素的63.99%,间接表明政策等因素会对LNG汽车的需求量产生重要的影响;(2)燃油价格的变动给LNG汽车需求量造成的影响比人均GDP、燃气价格更为显著,建议有关部门实行油气价格联动,以控制油气价格比。

Oil ＆ gas price fluctuation is closely related to the promotion of LNG vehicles. Under the situation of oil price fall and gas price rise, the previous advantage of LNG vehicles is not so obvious any more that their promotion is now facing challenges. However, the energy structure of ＂rich in gas ＆ poor in oil＂ in Sichuan will be a prerequisite for the development of LNG vehicles and Sichuan will become one of the representative provinces to promote LNG vehicles in China, but in the process of which bottleneck issues will be still encountered. In view of this, a double-logarithm demand function model was built reflecting the impact of oil/gas prices on LNG vehicle demand quantity. Based on the basic data of oil/gas prices and LNG vehicle numbers in Sichuan during 2003-2015, the Eviews software was applied to calculate the related parameters of the theoretical model, which was also verified and analyzed. The following findings were obtained. （1） Rigid demand of LNG vehicles is apparent in Sichuan, which is reflected by that a gas price increase of 1% is respond- ed by an LNG vehicle demand rise of 1.84%. （2） Gasoline and diesel are two important alternative vehicle fuels, so an LNG vehicle demand decrease of 4.73% is responded by an oil price decrease of 1%, which is just the reason for the significant sharp fall of LNG vehicle demand. In conclusion, such direct factors as fuel gas ＆ oil prices, GDP per capita, etc. account for 63.99% while the other factors like policy support play a vital role in the rising demand for LNG vehicles. Compared with the other direct factors, the impact of oil price fluctuation is so conspicuous that the oil-gas ratio should be controlled by oil and gas price linkage, the policy of which was suggested to adopt by relevant departments.