“一带一路”视野下南亚地缘政治格局及地区形势发展观察

Observations of the Geo-Political Context and Regional Order in South Asia:Perspectives from the Belt and Road Initiative

多年来,南亚地缘政治演绎中所呈现的"一家独大"的力量格局、醒目的区域裂痕、积重难返的安全问题、相对低效的地区机制,以及错综复杂的大国捭阖博弈局面等基本特征,总体上在延续发展,显示出历史的惯性;迄今,南亚地缘政治格局并未发生质变。不过,近期地区形势发展中的确有一些值得引起重视的新动向。首先,地区权力结构不对称性加剧,"印度中心"特征趋于强化,而巴基斯坦的南亚战略处境略趋于不利;其次,地区安全形势中三大痼疾持续发酵、两种安全互为交织,尤其印巴相互威慑的烈度呈现上升势头,而区域内外战略互动中带有对抗性博弈的内容趋于增多;此外,地区国家同域外大国的战略关系有不同发展演变,尤其是印美靠近而中印关系下滑所塑造出的中美印战略三角扁平化趋势,值得中国警惕。未来中国的南亚政策,需要尊重现实,不可抱"中印大同"的天真幻想,也不可持"合小攻大"的进攻性现实主义立场,而应该选择"合小稳大"的务实战略取向。

For many years,the South Asian geo-political context has been characterized by the dominance of a single power,striking regional fissures,intractable security challenges,relatively inefficient regional institutions,as well as complex major state competition.In general,observing the region’s history,there is continuity in the development of these dynamics.To present,there have been no substantive changes in the geo-political context in South Asia.That said,there are some distinct trends in more recent developments within the regional order that warrant attention.First,power structures in the region are increasingly asymmetric in nature,with a further gravitation towards India as the'Center'of the region,and Pakistan in an increasingly unfavorable strategic position;second,the region’s three'chronic illnesses'with respect to security continue to percolate.Two of these security issues are inherently inter-related:growing efforts to expand deterrence between India and Pakistan coupled with increasingly confrontational strategic dynamics both within and external to the region vis-à-vis regional competition.A further factor is the distinct developmental paths evolving in the strategic relationships between states within the region and major powers.This is especially the case as relations between India and America continue to strengthen,while Sino-Indian relations are on the decline.This trend in the triangular relationship between China,the U.S.and India is increasingly an issue that should be a concern from China’s vantagepoint.In the future,China’s South Asia policy needs to carefully respect regional realities,and cannot simply continue the fantasy of realizing'Chindia.'At the same time,the realist approach of'integrating small states and competing with large states'is not sustainable;instead a more pragmatic strategy of'integrating small states and stabilizing relations with large states'should be explored.