“伊斯兰国”南亚分支的性质、影响及发展

South Asian Branches of ISIS:Development,Characteristics and Influence

自"伊斯兰国"南亚分支成立至今,学界、政策界对该极端组织的性质、影响和发展前景的探讨充满争议。针对这些争议和疑惑,本文在已有研究的基础上,重点分析了"伊斯兰国"南亚分支与主要极端暴力组织的关系,对地区反叛运动的影响,及其自身发展的局限与机遇。本文发现,"伊斯兰国"南亚分支在不同国家形态各异,虽然他们主要由本土反叛分子构成,但与本土传统反叛组织在战略目标、意识形态与活动方式等方面存在差异,本质上属于"伊斯兰国"国际恐怖主义运动的组成部分。"伊斯兰国"在南亚的渗透使该地区反叛运动渐呈"分裂"与"极化"趋向,教派冲突色彩加重,极端化趋势在城市与网络空间日渐明显,恐怖与犯罪活动不断交织,在全球"圣战"运动中的影响有所加强。目前,"伊斯兰国"南亚分支在战场上处于守势,不可能扩大领土控制,但短期内也难以消亡,未来它还将继续利用和煽动地方矛盾,与当地支持者并肩作战,使南亚局势持续复杂、动荡。

Since the emergence of the ISIS in South Asia,the analysis of its’nature,impacts and development have been disputed among academia and political circles.Given their debates and doubts,this article focus on the analysis of the relationships between ISIS branches in South Asia and other main extreme violent organizations,its’impacts on rebel movements across the region,as well as the limitations and opportunities it faced on the basis of existing studies.It finds that the ISIS branches in South Asia vary widely across different countries,and while they are made up primarily of local rebels,there are significant differences between the two in terms of strategic objectives,ideology and patterns of activities.In essence,the ISIS branches in South Asia should be classified as a component of international terrorist movements.The infiltration of the ISIS in South Asia has resulted in the increasing'fragmentation'and'polarization'of rebel movements across the region,the aggravation of sectarian conflicts,the further radicalization in both urban and online spaces,as well as the increasingly intertwined activities among terrorist and criminal groups.The ISIS in South Asia will play a bigger role in the global Jihadi movements.Although this extreme organization had been largely on the defensive on the battlefield and could not expand the territory under its’control at this stage,it is difficult to eliminate it over the coming years.It will continue to take advantage of and flare local conflicts,fighting alongside its’local supporters,and further complicating and destabilizing the situation within South Asia in the future.