先富地区带动了其他地区共同富裕吗——基于空间外溢效应的分析

Have the Earlier Prosperous Regions Driven the Other Regions to be Rich——A Perspective of Spatial Spillover Effects

"让一部分地区先富裕起来,然后带动其他地区共同富裕",是中国在改革开放之初所做出的一项重大区域战略安排。迄今,该战略第一阶段的目标早已实现,一部分地区已经率先富裕起来了,但是,第二阶段的目标是否已经实现却是需要探讨的问题。本文认为,除了财政转移支付和对口支援等途径之外,在市场经济条件下,先富地区带动其他地区共同富裕的主要途径是其经济增长的空间外溢。据此,本文构建包含空间外溢的区域经济增长收敛模型,以该战略第一阶段目标的实现年1999年为时点确定先富地区,运用1999—2013年285个地级及以上市行政区的面板数据,考察先富地区是否带动了其他地区共同富裕。结果显示,先富地区通过经济增长的空间外溢带动了部分邻近的其他地区共同富裕,这种带动作用的有效范围有限,而且其程度也存在差异。这说明,先富地区带动其他地区共同富裕的作用具有明显的局域性和差异性。因此,从实现共同富裕考虑,一方面,需要继续促进先富地区经济发展,同时改善先富地区的空间外溢条件,扩大其带动其他地区共同富裕的空间范围;另一方面,对于先富地区带动作用所不能及的其他地区,则需要依据增长极理论设计新的区域战略及政策,促使其富裕起来。

＂Making some regions prosperous first, driving other regions to collective prosperity by the first prosperous regions＂ is a significant national developing strategy since the beginning of Reform and Opening-up Policy. Thus far, the first goal of this strategy has been realized early and some regions have already been prosperous. However, whether the second goal has been realized is left to be explored. In this paper, we argue that, except for public financial transfer payment and partner assistance, spatial spillover of economic growth is the main mechanism for the realization of collective prosperity in the market-oriented economy. Thus, taking the year 1999 as the realizing time of the first goal and using a panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities from the year of 1999 to 2013, this paper establishes a conditional convergence model, incorporating spatial spillover, to examine whether the first prosperous regions have driven others to be collectively prosperous. The empiric results show that, the valid geographical scope of this driving effect, which the first prosperous regions generate for other regions by spatial spillover of economic growth, is within only 390 kilometers away from the first prosperous regions. The influence of this driving effect on other regions is not even either. These results suggest that this driving effect exhibits characteristics of localization and hierarchization. Therefore, from the perspective of collective prosperity, on the one hand, some measures should be taken to continue promoting the development of the first prosperous regions, and meanwhile to improve the condition of spatial spillover from the first prosperous regions and to extend this driving scope; on the other hand, according to the theory of growth pole, some new policies should be carried out to help regions beyond this driving scope to get prosperous.