高速铁路对中国城市产业结构的影响研究

THE STRUCTURAL IMPACT OF HIGH SPEED RAIL UPON URBAN INDUSTRIES IN CHINA

交通是影响城市产业发展的重要因素,高铁作为一种新型交通工具必将对城市产业发展产生影响。修正市场潜力模型分析高铁对中国城市产业结构的影响。结果表明:(1)总体上,高铁提升了城市服务业的比重,降低了城市制造业的比重;制造业型城市和服务业型城市的服务业比重都得到提升,制造业比重都下降;从单个城市来看,高铁提升了大多数制造业型城市和大多数服务业型城市服务业的比重。(2)对于制造业型城市的产业结构升级,高铁主要促进该类城市一般服务业比重的提升;对于服务业型城市的产业结构强化,高铁主要促进这些城市高端服务业比重的提升。(3)高铁的开通增强了中心城市的溢出效应,促进了中心城市及其周边城市的产业结构升级。

Transportation is one of the most important location factors which influence urban development. High speed rail （HSR）, as a newly important form of transportation, reduces the cost of the transport, which will directly or indirectly contribute to urban economic development. The direct effect refers to itself as a kind of location factor improving regional transportation conditions and regional accessibility. The indirect impact is that it can influence the flow of labor, capital and other geographical factors＇ spatial distribution and finally change the location conditions of urban development. Both influences may contribute HSR as kind of agglomeration or dispersion force of economy. In order to analyze the effect of high speed rail upon urban industrial structure, we use 2010 China Industrial and Commercial Enterprise Registration data, and re- vise the Market Potential model to calculate the market potential of the selected industries which have input- output connection and spatial linkage, and then get the new employment of each industrial sector and ana- lyze the effects of HSR upon urban industrial structure. Results show： 1） In general, the proportion of urban manufacturing industry shows a downward trend, and decrease slightly, the proportion of service industry shows an upward trend, and increase slightly. 2） HSR mainly increases the proportion of low-end service of manufacturing-oriented cities and the high-end service industry of service-oriented cities. 3） The impact of HSR is greater on the cities that surround or distribute on the radiation lines of core cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, which implies that HSR strengthens the spillover effect of the core cities and meanwhile reduce the potential of development of the edge cities.