财经报道可以倚重吗?——来自AH交叉上市公司的现场实验证据

Is Financial Media Coverage Reliable? Field Experiment Evidence from AH Dual-listed Companies

财经报道是投资者重要的信息来源,然而财经报道客观反映了公司的基本面吗?投资者可以倚重吗?文章基于51家公司在内地与香港两地交叉上市这一现场实验,构建了符合中文表达习惯的财经类负面词词典,运用内容分析法定量分析了两地9家财经媒体对这些公司的报道语调与公司会计收益之间的关系。研究发现,两地财经报道中负面词比率皆可用以预测公司收益,证实了内地财经报道与香港财经报道一样,含有公司基本面价值的信息。对内地财经报道的这一乐观判断似乎与人们的直观感受并不相符,但进一步研究发现,内地财经媒体拥有区域临近信息优势,可能部分抵消了其在媒体报道空间、所在市场成熟程度等方面的劣势。文章同时指出,随着移动信息技术的发展,资本市场媒体情绪与虚假新闻应该得到足够重视,有必要形成系统的体制机制,打造媒体谣言"防火墙",防止市场情绪被人为操纵,有效保护投资者。

Financial media coverage is the important information source of investors, however, does it objectively reflect the fundamental information of the companies？ Could the investors rely on it？ Based on the field experiment of Chinese companies dual-listed in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, this paper constructs a dictionary of negative financial terms in accordance with Chinese expressions, and quantitatively analyzes the relationship between the tone of reports issued by 9 financial media on these companies and corporate accounting earnings by using content analysis. The result shows the fraction of negative words in the financial media coverage in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong could predict the future earnings, which demonstrates that similar with Hong Kong financial media coverage, mainland financial media coverage includes the fundamental information. The optimistic judgment on the mainland financial media coverage does not seem to be in line with people＇ intuitive feelings, but further study shows that mainland financial media have geographic proximity information advantages, and may partially offset their disadvantages in the aspects of media coverage and market maturity. At the same time, this paper points out that with the development of mobile information technology, capital market sentiment and false news should be paid enough attention to and it is necessary to form a system of institutional mechanisms, create firewalls of media rumors, prevent market sentiment from being manipulated and protect investors effectively.