北京市科技创新系统演化协同度研究——基于复合系统协同度模型

科技创新是提升社会生产力和综合国力的战略支撑。文章在构建科技创新复合系统的理论模型基础上,利用北京市2001年至2015年的相关数据采用复合系统协同度模型,实证研究了北京市科技创新系统的协同发展程度,并通过方差分解动态检测了系统协同度与子系统有序度之间的响应关系以及影响程度。研究结果表明:北京市科技创新系统的协同度总体一直处于协同有序的发展状态,协同度的变动依次历经低度协同、一般协同和高度协同三个阶段;北京市科技创新各子系统的有序度整体呈现震荡式上升趋势,且各子系统有序度对系统协同度的贡献力度各有差异。最后,文章从研发人员、财政支持、人文环境、金融发展、产业结构方面对北京市科技创新系统的协同发展提出了针对性的政策建议。

Scientific and technological innovation is the strategic support which is to enhance the social productive forces and comprehensive national strength. Based on the theoretical model of scientific and technological innovation composite system, this article uses the composite system coordination model of data from 2001 to 2015 to study the degree of coordinated development of scientific and technological innovation system in Beijing City, and through the variance decomposition dynamically detects the response and the degree of influence between the system synergy and the order degree of the subsystem. The results show that the synergy of scientific and technological innovation system in Beijing City has been in a coordinated and orderly development state. The synergy has been followed by three stages： low coordination, general coordination and high coordination. The overall order degree of the subsystems of scientific and technological innovation in Beijing City is showing a shock type rising trend, and the order degrees of subsystems make different contributions to system synergy. Finally, the article puts forward some policy suggestions on the coordinated development of Beijing＇s scientific and technological innovation system in terms of R＆D personnel, public finance support, humanistic environment, financial development and industrial structure.