社会融资规模与货币数量论

Aggregate Financing of the Real Economy and the Quantity Theory of Money

近年来,我国宏观调控中引入了社会融资规模的概念。社会融资规模是指一定时期内实体经济从金融体系获得的资金总额。实践上,社会融资规模确实有着比较好的预测效果,不过其理论基础却存在一定的争议。该文从国家资产负债表和资金流量表的角度探讨社会融资规模的含义,导出了包含社会融资规模的货币数量论公式。从这一公式可以看出,社会融资规模产出比以及储蓄率都会影响社会融资规模的预测效果,而且这一公式可以很容易地解释货币超发现象。最后,该文分析了社会融资规模对GDP增长率和通货膨胀的影响。

In recent years,the concept of aggregate financing of the real economy（AFRE）has been introduced to the macroeconomic regulation in China.Aggregate financing of the real economy indicates the amount of money the real economy obtains from the financial system.In practice,aggregate financing of the real economy indeed has favorable forecasting power,but there exist some disputes on its theoretical foundations.This paper explores and investigates the implications of aggregate financing of the real economy from the perspective of national balance sheets and fund flow statements,and derives the equation of quantitative theory of money that includes the aggregate financing of the real economy.From the equation,it can seen that both the aggregate financing-production ratio as well as the savings rate impact the predictability of the aggregate financing of the real economy,and it is easy to explain the phenomenon of excess supply of money from this equation.In addition to this,this paper also investigates the relationship between money-production ratio,aggregate financing-production ratio as well as the capital-production ratio on the basis of the equation.Finally,this paper also analyzes the impacts the aggregate financing leaves on GDP growth and inflation.