基于土地供应侧的中国商品住宅空置效应分析--以35个大中城市为例

Exploring the Impactof Land Supply Policy on the Vacancy of Commercial Housing:Evidence from 35 Large and Medium Cities

正确厘清土地供应与商品住宅的关系,探知其对住宅空置的影响,是合理运用土地供给政策,实现我国供给侧改革去库存任务的重要问题。基于三类影响渠道的机理分析,利用2004-2014年我国35个大中城市的面板数据,构建计置模型,解析土地供应数置与价格对商品住宅空置的影响。结果发现,土地供给数置在当年与住房空置存在负向关系,而在3年后则为显著正向关系,土地供应价格则始终呈负向关系。进一步研究发现,土地供给政策对住房空置的影响存在显著的城市差异。实证表明,"预期渠道"在短期对高房价城市更为有效,而"生产函数渠道"在长期对低房价城市更为有效。最后,就土地供应政策对去库存提出相关政策建议。

Clarification of the relationship between land supply and commercial housing, and exploration of its impact on the vacancy of housing, are important tasks to achieve our supply side reform using the land supply policy. Based on the analysis of the mechanism of the three types of channels, this paper uses the panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 2004 to 2014 to construct the measurement model to analyze the impact of land supply quantity and price on the vacancy of commercial housing. It is found that there used to be a negative relationship between the number of land supply and the vacancy in housing, yet it turned into a significant positive relationship after three years. On the other hand, the relationships between land price and housing vacancies remained negative. Further studies have found that there are significant urban differences in the impact of land supply policies on housing vacancies. Empirical evidences show that the ＂expected channel＂ is more effective in cities with high housing prices in the short term, and that the ＂production function channel＂ is more effective in cities with low housing prices in the long run. Finally, policies on land supply are put forward to reduce housing inventories.