买方市场还是卖方市场:P2P借贷双方议价能力测度和比较

Buyer's Market or Seller's Market: Measuring the Bargaining Power of Investor and Borrower of Peer-to-Peer Lending

笔者通过收集人人贷网站数据,采用了异质性双边随机边界方法研究了P2P网贷中借款人和投资人对借贷利率的定价权力的相对大小。研究结果表明,在竞拍模式下的P2P网贷业务中,投资者在利率决定中处于明显的强势地位,导致最终平均成交利率高出公允利率12.9%,并且几乎所有投资者都占有了净剩余,从而P2P市场呈现买方市场的特征;进一步通过分析软信息对借款人议价能力的作用发现,借款描述的字数只在一定范围能对增加借款人议价能力有帮助,超过这个范围反而会削弱借款人的利率定价权。笔者还比较了投资者净剩余依不同维度特征的分布信息,发现借款人的信用等级越高,投资者占有的净剩余越少;投资者占有净剩余的多少虽然依借款人居住地有一定区别,但并不按东、中、西部的区域呈现明显差异;文章还发现货币政策调整与投资者占有净剩余的大小有一定关联性,在一系列扩张型货币政策调整之后,投资者的净剩余缩小,借款人议价能力严重不足的情形得到缓解。笔者的研究反映了P2P平台借贷活动中,借款人在利率定价权上的地位缺失,因此P2P网贷业务离"普惠金融"的公平性发展目标尚存在一定差距。

This paper studies on the bargain power of borrower side and investor side of Peer-to-Peer lending market with approach of Two-tier Stochastic Frontier Analysis with the consideration of heterogeneity. The collected data is from a famous P2P lending website of China. The Result shows that in the auction pattern, the investors hold in the dominant position, and most of the net surplus is owned by investors, thus the lending interest is more than 12. 9% higher above the fair value, which indicates that P2P lending market is on the buyer＇s side. The further study shows that the description-text length increase the bargain power of borrowers when less than a critical value, but will also impair the bargain power if the text length exceeds the threshold. We also do a comparative analysis on the distribution of net surplus along with different attribute. The higher credit rating the borrowers have, the less net surplus the investors take. The net surplus varies with respect to borrower＇s residence, but the difference seems not significant from the aspect of east, middle or west part of China. The adjustment of monetary seems affect the net surplus, that is, after a series of loose monetary policy, the gap between the surplus of investors and lenders would decrease. From this paper we can conclude that lenders on P2P platforms lack of pricing power of the lending interest rate, hence P2P is far from being part of inclusive finance.