不确定条件下能源替代问题研究

Study on the Resource Substitution under Uncertainty

能源最优开采问题是可持续发展的重要议题之一,日益严峻的环境污染使得能源替代问题被广泛关注。能源市场中存在诸多不确定因素,本研究在假设可耗竭资源的储量及可再生资源的技术进步均具有不确定性的条件下探讨了可耗竭资源向可再生资源转换问题。首先讨论了资源税、储量不确定性、需求价格弹性、成本储量弹性对可耗竭资源最优开采路径的影响;其次分析了技术进步不确定性对可再生资源最优开采路径的影响;最后研究了最优转换时间问题。在求解模型的过程中,发现求得最优化模型的显式解不容易,转而采用数值模拟方法找到模型的数值解。结果显示最优的转换时间不但受到不确定性因素的影响,还受到能源需求、开采成本及资源税等相关参数的影响。

The optimal exploitation problem of resource one of the important issues of sustainable development and increasingly serious of environment pollution makes energy substitution problem widely concerned. There are many uncertainties in the energy market, we study the determinants of switching from exhaustible resources inputs to renewable resource inputs in energy production under the uncertainty of exhaustible resource reserve and the technology progress of renewable resource. Firstly, the effects of resource tax, uncertainty of reserve, price elasticity of demand and reserves elasticity of cost on optimal exploitation path of exhaustible resources are discussed. Secondly, the influence of technology progress uncertainty on the optimal exploitation path of renewable resources is analyzed. Finally, the gives raise to an optimal problem model that cannot be tions. The results suggest that the optimal switching time problem is studied. Our model solved analytically, then we turn to numerical simulaoptimal switching time depends not only also on energy demand, cost, the resource tax and so on on the uncertainty parameters, but also on energy demand, cost, the resource tax and so on.