中国畜牧业温室气体排放现状及峰值预测

Chinese greenhouse gas emissions from livestock:Trend and predicted peak value

为了解近年来中国畜牧业温室气体的排放趋势,预测排放峰值,按照《省级温室气体清单编制指南(试行)》(2011)要求,根据中国2005—2015年畜禽饲养量,评估了中国2005—2015年畜牧业温室气体(GHG)的排放状况,并以欧盟、美国2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量为衡量指标,预估了中国畜牧业达到该水平时的年份以及该年份的温室气体排放量,作为中国畜牧业温室气体排放峰值。结果表明:2005—2015年中国畜牧业温室气体排放量的范围为4.06~4.52亿t CO_2-eq,总体呈现两次先降后升的趋势,最低点出现在2008年,最高点为2009年;2009年之后,中国畜牧业温室气体排放总量较为平稳。以2015年的数据为基础分析中国畜牧业温室气体排放的组成,肠道CH_4是主要排放源,所占比例为66.61%,粪便N_2O和CH_4排放比例分别为18.23%和15.16%;从畜禽种类来看,反刍动物(牛、羊)为主要来源,排放比例可达72.44%,猪和家禽所占的比例分别为19.22%和6.81%。因此,养牛业是中国畜牧业温室气体的主要排放源,其次为养猪业。就地域分布来看,2015年,中国畜牧业温室气体排放量居于前10位的省份呈现连片性。河南、四川、内蒙古、山东和云南居全国前列,是施行减排的重点区域;新疆和西藏地区也应作为CH_4减排的重点区域。对于中国畜牧业温室气体排放峰值而言,若要达到欧盟2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量水平,峰值出现在2034年,排放量为4.89亿t CO_2-eq,较2015年增长8.94%,年均增长率为2.90%;若要达到美国2013年的人均畜产品蛋白占有量水平,排放峰值则在2043年,排放量为5.10亿t CO_2-eq,较2015年增长13.53%,年均增长率为4.32%。

This study was conducted to gain a general understanding of the trend in greenhouse gas（GHG） emissions from livestock and to predict its peak value in China. This study was based on the ＂Guidelines for the Provincial Inventory of Greenhouse Gas（Trial）, 2011＂, and the populations of animals in China from 2005 to 2015 were used to calculate the GHG emissions from livestock in China. The animal prod-uct protein supply quantity in China, the European Union（EU）, and the United States of America（USA）in 2013 were used to predict the peak of GHG emissions in China. Based on these methods, the results showed that：GHG emissions from 2005 to 2015 in China were about406~452 million tons CO2-eq. The lowest peak point occurred in 2008, while the highest peak point was in 2009. After 2009, the GHG e-missions from livestock were relatively stable. In 2015, enteric methane was the GHG most emitted from livestock in China, accounting for66.61% of the total, followed by CH4 and N2O emissions from manure, at 18.23% and 15.16%, respectively. With respect to animal species,ruminants were the main source of GHG emissions（up to 72.44%）, followed by pigs and poultry at 19.22% and 6.81%, respectively. So cattle was the main source of GHG emissions in China, followed by pigs. There were effects of geographical distribution on the amount of GHG emissions in China, where the top 10 provinces in terms of GHG emissions were contiguous. Notably, Henan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia,Shandong, and Yunnan were the leaders of the country in terms of GHG emissions, and these areas should focus on reducing GHG emissions. In addition, Xinjiang and Tibet should be targeted as important areas for CH4 reduction. As for the peak of GHG emissions from livestock, it will be 489 million tons CO2-eq in 2034 if China reaches the same level of animal product protein supply as the EU, an increase of8.94% compared with 2015. The annual growth rate would be 2.90%. Following the same trend, the peak of GHG will be 510 million tons CO2-eq in 2043 if China reaches the same animal products protein supply as the USA, with an increase of 13.53% compared with 2015 and a 4.32% increase in annual growth rate.