中国省域人口城镇化率影响因素的空间杜宾分析

Spatial Durbin Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China's Provincial Population Urbanization Rate

文章基于全国31个省区1998—2014年的相关数据,利用空间杜宾模型进行了实证分析。结果表明:人口城镇化率具有空间自相关性。随机效应的SDM结果显示:城镇固定资产投资比重、经济外向度、信息化水平、人均受教育程度对本省区的直接效应为正,但是第三产业产值比重的直接效应为负;从间接效应来说,三产产值比重与城镇固定资产投资比重在相邻省区之间体现为竞争关系;经济外向度、信息化水、人均受教育水平则为互补互促关系,且省域人口城镇化率具有明显的正外溢效应。

Based on the relevant data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2014, this paper makes an empirical analysis by use of Durbin model. The study result demonstrates that population urbanization rate has spatial autocorrelation. SDM with random effects analysis shows that the proportion of the urban fixed assets investment, the economic export-oriented degree, the informa- tionization level and the per-capita education level have a direct and positive effect on the population urbanization, but the direct effect of the tertiary industry output value proportion is negative; seen from the indirect effeet, the proportion of the tertiary indus- try output value and the proportion of urban investment in fixed assets reflects a competition relationship between the adjacent provinces; the economic export-oriented degree, the informationization level and the per-capita education level present relation- ship of complementation and mutual promotion between the adjacent provinces, and provincial population urbanization rate has a significant positive spillover effect.