入盟十年:保加利亚和罗马尼亚的政治不稳定

Ten Years of Accession into the EU: Turbulent Situations of Bulgaria and Romania

入盟10年来,保加利亚和罗马尼亚政治以不稳定为特征,表现为政党制度不稳定、国家机构不稳定和社会秩序不稳定。欧盟规范力量下降和影响力量上升是两国政治不稳定的重要外部条件。一方面,入盟前曾对国家机构和社会秩序的稳定发挥过规范作用的入盟标准没有关注和带来政党制度的稳定,也没有从根本上改变政治角色的行为准则。随着入盟后规范力量的下降,原本为入盟而有所克制的政治角色恢复常态,而仍在发挥规范作用的合作与确认机制又因对两国反腐败的推动引起某些政治不稳定。另一方面,欧盟影响力量的上升不仅使两国国内的政治斗争向欧盟层面延伸,而且使两国的政治稳定更易于受到国际金融危机和欧元区债务危机的冲击。在欧盟发展面临不确定性的今天,保加利亚和罗马尼亚的政治稳定将受到怎样的影响,尚需密切观察。

Over the past decade,the political instability of Bulgaria and Romania has been characterized by unstable political parties,unstable state institutions and unstable social order.The decline of normative power Europe and the rise of EU influence are important external conditions for political instability in both countries.On the one hand,membership criteria,which benefited stability of state institutions and the social order stability,didn’t bring the stability of the political party system,and did not fundamentally change the code of conduct of the political role also.With normative force decline after accession,political role that was restraint for accession of the EU returned to normal,and still alive the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism causes certain political instability in two countries because of its role of anti-corruption.On the other hand,the EU’s impact strength rise not only leads the domestic political struggle of the two countries to the EU level,and the political stability of the two countries are more vulnerable to the international financial crisis and the impact of the euro zone’s debt crisis.How the political stability of Bulgaria and Romania will be affected in the face of uncertainty over the development of the European Union remains to be seen.