不同农业经济发展水平下的碳排放对比分析——以盐池县和平度市为例

Comparative analysis of agricultural carbon emissions at different agricultural economic development levels in Yanchi County and Pingdu City

本文以宁夏盐池县和山东平度市为例,采用文献综述法和系数法分别核算了东西部地区县域尺度上的农业碳排放,对比分析1995-2015年农业碳排放特征及其变化规律,同时探讨不同农业经济发展水平下农业碳排放的差异和碳减排策略,以期为区域农业低碳经济的发展提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)盐池的农业碳排放量远小于平度,但相对于平度的农业碳排放及其强度的年均变化率呈低速降低的趋势,盐池的呈快速增加的趋势;(2)盐池的农业碳排放的主要来源是畜牧业养殖;平度的主要来源包括农用化学物质投入间接碳排放和畜牧业养殖碳排放;(3)对比盐池和平度的农业碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)可知,盐池正处于农业经济增长的初期,需同时兼顾经济发展和农业碳减排的双重重任;而平度处于农业经济增长的后期,具备有在保持经济增长的同时兼顾农业碳减排的条件。盐池应该努力发展"种(种植)养(养殖)加(加工)一体化"循环经济,以此来减少粪便直接排放对土壤、大气和水的污染以及无机化肥的施用产生的农业碳排放;而平度应大力推广使用低碳环保的农资产品,以此来减少农资本身和使用过程中的碳排放。

Comparative analyses of agricultural carbon emissions at different agricultural economic development levels is helpful to understanding regional low carbon economic development. Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC）hypothesis, using Yanchi County in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and Pingdu City in Shandong as two comparative study areas, we analyzed the changing characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions, and the relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth in crop-livestock farming from 1995 to 2015 in order to provide a scientific basis for agricultural carbon reduction at different intensive levels. We found that the total agricultural carbon emissions for Pingdu were much greater than that of Yanchi. However, the annual average changing rates of agricultural carbon emissions and intensity in Yanchi increased, while that in Pingdu decreased. There were great differences in the causes of agricultural carbon emissions between two areas. Livestock farming in Yanchi County was a primary source of agricultural carbon emissions; while main carbon emissions in Pingdu included indirect carbon emissions from agrochemical materials and livestock farming. According to the agricultural carbon emission EKC hypothesis, we can conclude that agricultural carbon emission EKC for Yanchi was at the beginning of economic growth in crop-livestock farming. Therefore, Yanchi should weigh the benefits of economic growth and agricultural carbon reduction and try to develop an eco-environmentally friendly economy with recycling excretion from livestock farming, which not only prevent regional soil, air and water from being contaminated with excretion direct discharge, but also improve crop yield and reduce agricultural carbon emissions. However, the EKC for Pingdu was at a later period of economic growth in crop-livestock farming, indicating that it is possible to reduce carbon emissions and maintain certain agricultural economic benefits. Carbon emission reduction should be implemented strictly in Pingdu by using low-carbon environmental orotection azrochemicals.