上海市闵行区2002—2013年恶性肿瘤发病趋势分析

Aincidence trend analysis of cancer incidence in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2002 to 2013

目的分析上海市闵行区2002—2013年恶性肿瘤的发病趋势,为制定肿瘤综合防治策略提供科学依据。方法利用2002—2013年闵行区恶性肿瘤发病资料,计算粗发病率、标化发病率、截缩率、累积率以及变化百分比(percent change,PC)、年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)和年度变化贡献率。结果 2002—2013年闵行区恶性肿瘤发病总体呈现逐年上升趋势,甲状腺癌、结直肠癌、乳腺癌的世界标化发病率呈显著上升趋势;胃癌、肝癌和肺癌的世界标化发病率呈显著下降趋势。结论闵行区恶性肿瘤的发病总体呈上升趋势。甲状腺癌、结直肠癌和乳腺癌上升较为明显,需引起重视;胃癌和肝癌下降较为明显,说明暴露因素得到一定控制。

Objective To analyze the incidence trend of malignant tumor in Minhang District of Shanghai from 2002 to 2013,in order to provide scientific evidence for making the comprehensive prevention and control strategy. Methods Incidence of cancer data（2002-2013）of Minhang District were collected.The crude rate,standardized rate,sectional shrinkage rate,accumulation rate,percentage change（PC）,annual percentage change（APC）and annual change contribution rate were calculated for main malignant tumors separately. Results The total incidence of malignant tumors in Minhang District from 2002 to 2013 increased year by year,mainly showed in thyroid cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer,while decreased in gastric cancer,liver cancer and lung cancer.ConclusionsThe incidence of malignant tumor in Minhang District was increasing.The incidence of thyroid cancer,colorectal cancer and breast cancer were significantly increased,which were needed to pay more attention.The incidence of gastric cancer and liver cancer were decreased significantly,which indicated that exposure factors were controlled effectively.