西沙海域近百年SST上升速率估算

Estimation of the SST Increase Rate over the Last 100 Years in the Xisha Seas

根据西沙海洋(环境监测)站的海面温度(SST)历史资料、1900—2016年Had ISST数据集中西沙海域1°×1°网格SST和其他气温历史资料,比较该海域不同气候基准期SST的差值,采用回归分析方法估算近100年、近56年SST的变化速率,探讨该海域SST变化与全球气候变暖的关系。结果表明:1)20世纪70年代以来西沙海域海洋站的SST基准值比Had ISST 1°×1°网格SST高0.13~0.19℃;2)1961—2016年西沙海域SST、南海区SST、华南沿岸SST与广东省年平均气温的上升速率在0.016~0.017℃/年之间;3)近100年西沙海域SST上升率为0.011℃/年,略高于同时期全球气候变暖速率(0.009℃/年)。

Based on the combination of historical sea surface temperature （SST） datasets monitored by the Xisha Ocean （ Environmental Monitoring） Station, 1°×1° gridded SST datasets of the coastal region of Shantou from 1960 to 2016 and other historical datasets of air temperature, this study compared the SST vari- ations from the baseline period of different climates in this region, estimated the rate of SST change over the last 100 years and 56 years by the regression analysis, and discussed the relationships between SST varia- tions and global warming in the region. The results showed that： 1 ） the basic SST values from the Xisha ma- rine station were 0.13 -0.19℃ higher than that from the 1°×1° gridded HadISST since the 1970s; 2） the increase rates of SST in Xisha waters are 0. 016 - 0. 017 ℃/a from 1961 to 2016 ; 3） the increase rate of SST in Xisha seas over the last 100 years was 0. 011℃/a, which was a little higher than the rate of global warming at the same period （0. 009 ℃/a）.