城镇化率的提升必然加剧雾霾污染吗——兼论城镇化与雾霾污染的空间溢出效应

Will the increase of the urbanization rate inevitably exacerbate haze pollution? A discussion of the spatial spillover effects of urbanization and haze pollution

城镇化率的提升是否会加剧雾霾污染?在当前国家大力推进新型城镇化建设的背景下,对于该问题的科学解答显得尤为必要。利用空气质量指数(AQI)对雾霾污染进行测度,构建空间联立方程研究,城镇化率和雾霾污染的交互关系及其空间效应,采用广义空间三阶段最小二乘法(GS3SLS)进行整体估计,结果表明,城镇化率的提升对雾霾污染有显著的负向影响,雾霾污染对城镇化率的提升具有显著的抑制作用,二者皆存在显著的空间溢出效应,周边地区的城镇化率和雾霾污染对本地区会产生负向影响。分组研究进一步验证了随着城镇化率的提升雾霾污染逐步减轻这一结论,组2(城镇化率≥60.8%)的估计结果明显比组1(城镇化率<60.8%)要显著,揭示了城镇化率的提升对雾霾污染呈负向影响这一趋势随着城镇化率的提高而愈发显著。研究还发现,随着城镇化率的提升,经济发展水平和雾霾污染之间存在"N型曲线"关系,这对当前城镇化率较高的地区是一个警示。

Will the increase of the urbanization rate exacerbate haze pollution？ Against the background of China＇s vigorous promotion of new-type urbanization, how to answer this question scientifically is very important. This paper uses the air quality index （AQI） to measure haze pollution, and spatial simultaneous equations were constructed to study the interactive relationship and spatial effects of the urbanization rate and haze pollution. Generalized spatial three-stage least squares （GS3SLS） were used to estimate parameters. The results show that the urbanization rate has a significant negative impact on haze pollution and that haze pollution also has a significant negative impact on the urbanization rate. Both of them have significant spatial spillover effects. Increase in the urbanization rate of the surrounding area will have a negative effect on local haze pollution. Similarly, increased haze pollution in the surrounding area will have a negative effect on the local urbanization rate. This conclusion explains why haze pollution control cannot be conducted alone; collaborative governance between neighboring areas is the only effective solution. Group study further corroborated this conclusion. With the increase in the urbanization rate, haze pollution was gradually reduced. The estimation results of group 2 （urbanization rate ≥60.8%） were more significant than those of group 1 （urbanization rate 〈60.8% ）. With an increased urbanization rate, its negative influence on haze pollution become more and more significant. Specifically, when the urbanization rate was less than 60.8%, if it increased by 1%, haze pollution would drop by 0.0143%. When the urbanization rate was greater than or equal to 60.8%, if it increased by 1%, haze pollution would decline by 0.0178%. The study also found that, with the increase in urbanization rate, there exists an ＂N curve＂ relationship between the level of economic development and haze pollution. This can play a warning role for areas with a high urbanization rate. In addition, the increase in R＆D investment did not inhibit haze pollution. This result implies that there may be an energy rebound effect caused by technological progress in China. China should study how the market mechanism works together with fiscal policy to carefully deal with the emergence of this energy rebound effect.