山东半岛城市群的适度规模——基于水资源视角的分析

Moderate scale of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomerations:analysis based on the perspective from water resources

基于水资源承载力建立了城市适度规模计算模型和城市适度规模与实际人口的协调度评价模型,对山东半岛城市群适度规模与水资源承载力协调程度的时空格局进行了评估,对未来水资源约束下的山东半岛城市的适度规模进行了预测。结果显示:山东半岛城市群水资源供给水平及居民生活可利用水平呈现在波动中略微下降的趋势;2004-2014年,山东半岛城市群实际人口规模高于城市适度规模,区域水资源处于超载状态,城市适度规模距离协调度为濒临失调状态;从空间格局上来看,山东半岛城市群西部的水资源供需状况优于东部地区。预测结果显示,2015-2020年山东半岛城市群基于水资源承载力的城市适度规模小于线性预测人口,差距有逐年增大的趋势。据此认为,优化产业结构、加快用水技术革新、建立水资源补偿与恢复机制、加强区际用水协调是应对山东半岛城市群水资源供需矛盾的应有措施。

A quantitative analysis of the appropriate scale of Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration is carried out by using the calculation model of water resources carrying capacity. And the computable model for the distance coordination degree between urban appropriate scale and actual population was constructed,the forewarning and the evaluation interval was given. Urban moderate scale restricted by water resources in the future were predicted and analyzed. The results show： Firstly,the level of water resources supplying and residents＇ living standardspresent downward trend slightly and fluctuant in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration; Secondly,from 2004 to 2014,the actual population is higher than the moderate scale in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration,and the water resources are in a state of overload,the moderate scale distance coordination degree is on the verge of imbalance; Thirdly,the level of water resources supplying in the western region is better than the eastern in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration; Fourthly, the moderate scale based on the water resources carrying capacity is lower than the linear prediction from 2015 to 2020,and the gap will increase year by year. Accordingly,improving industrial structure,accelerating technological innovation,planning city scale reasonable,establishing water resource compensation and recovery mechanism,strengthening interregional water coordination are the main measures to improve water resources condition in the future.